Wednesday
Weather
Much like Tuesday, we will have a cloudy and wet morning followed by a dry and sunny afternoon. The morning rain will be heavier than Tuesday’s though, and there won’t be quite as much mist and hill-fog. The winds will start S’ly force 4-5 at dawn, then they will quickly veer NW’ly and strengthen to force 5-6 (possibly 7 for a brief time). Then, through the afternoon and evening, the winds will gradually back to a force 4-5 SW’ly. Max temp 10°C, min temp 7°C.
Surf and tide
Possibly a brief moment of clean west-coast surf at dawn, but otherwise big, choppy and certainly rather splashy at high tide (10:10am). The best spots for a swim in relatively smooth water, will be Fermain at any time of day and Saints Bay around high tide.
Thursday
Weather
Once again, the rain will be packed into the morning. This time in the form of heavy showers, which could be very heavy and thundery, especially around dawn. However, by noon, they should have cleared through to leave us dry and partly sunny for the rest of the day. The wind much lighter and more comfortable this time, just a force 4 S’ly during the day, veering W’ly overnight. Max temp 10°C, min temp 6-7°C.
Surf and tide
Much cleaner west-coast surf than on Wednesday, but nowhere near as ridiculously massive as on Sunday and Monday. Just a standard 3-5 feet on this occasion, making it far more accessible at a number of different spots at various times through the day. High water will be about 8.4m at 11am.
Friday
Weather
Another day of just light to moderate breezes, this time from a WNW’ly direction, steadily lowering the temperature, so we can only expect a max of about 8°C and a min temp of about 5-6°C. The weather should be mostly dry and bright, although there is an area of showery rain expected to move over the north of the Channel, and there’s just a slim risk that this will extend a bit further south, to give us a brief wetting around lunchtime.
Surf and tide
Choppy west-coast surf, but lovely swimming conditions along the south and east coasts. High water will be about 7.8m at midday.
The Weekend
Weather
Currently looking dry, relatively settled and partly sunny through daylight hours. The only rain looks set to fall in the night time; just light on Saturday night, but probably heavier towards the end of Sunday night, when there is also a chance that it will turn to sleet. The wind will be fairly light but it will still feel cold, NNW’ly on Saturday, gradually backing to an even colder E’ly by Sunday night. The south coast will certainly be the most comfortable area to go for a nice walk or a run.
Surf and the Water
Once again, the surf is looking pretty messy, and it will have become pretty small too, but the south-coast should offer some lovely smooth water for swimming. The tides will be low around dawn and high in the early afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
The big question about next week is, will it be white? Well maybe. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be raising the subject. It’s been a few weeks since the last cold E’ly had snow-lovers on the edge of their seats, and now we are in that familiar position again. Right now it’s very uncertain, but here’s how it’s currently looking… Monday will see a low pressure system spin into France and we will probably catch some persistent light rain on its northern flank. It might just be a little sleety at times, but actually the chances look higher on Tuesday, when another low follows the same path and the precipitation will probably be heavier. After that, we will possibly have a day or two when a bitter NE’ly wind squeezes through the Dover Strait and causes wintry showers to form and stream in our direction. This would perhaps give us a greater chance of seeing snow. However, it is very uncertain whether or not this situation will even arise, because computer models suggest an equal chance that we will simply revert to a relatively mild SSW’ly airflow. Best just keep an eye on the updates.
Surf and the Water
Despite the uncertainties, the potential wind directions E’ly or S’ly both look good for surfing, providing we actually get some waves. Right now, it looks as though we most probably will be blessed with waves most days, ranging between about 2 feet and 5 feet. Hoods, gloves and boots will all be pretty essential though, for anybody who wants to last longer than five minutes. Small tides at the beginning of the week (highs of roughly 7.4m) and big tides at the end of the week (highs of roughly 9.3m).
The next forecast update will be on Thursday and Friday.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway