Monday
Weather
The erratic movements of the weather-front that has hung around the west end of the Channel for the past five or six days, has made forecasting very awkward (hence my wrong prediction of rain on Sunday). Therefore, I will certainly be glad to see it finally clear eastwards around lunchtime, which is when the morning’s low-cloud, mist and drizzle will be replaced by lovely sunshine, and the gentle NW’ly breeze will slowly swing back to a mild S’ly (max temp 10-11°C).
Surf and the Water
More whomping west-coast waves (5-7 feet) and possibly some more-manageable waves (1-3 feet) on the north coast. The tidal movements will be incredibly small and slow, with a depth change of only 2.4m between the 8:20am low and the 2:30pm high.
Tuesday
Weather
Dry with hazy sunshine and moderate to fresh S’ly breeze, taking the temperature up to a very healthy 13°C.
Surf and the Water
Tuesday will offer an opportunity for the more novice surfers to have a slice of the action, with the west-coast waves dropping off to a super-clean 2-3 feet. The tidal range will be slightly larger than the last couple of days, but it will still be very small, with a low of about 3.7m at 9:40am and a high of about 6.9m at 3:50pm.
Wednesday
Weather
Just the same as Tuesday (hazy sunshine and a fresh S’ly breeze lifting us to another lucky max of 13°C), except this time there is a chance of a few showers in the evening and overnight. If these showers do happen then it’s probably going to mean dirty cars on Thursday morning, because there is quite a lot of Saharan dust expected to sail high above Europe and the UK this week.
Surf and the Water
The big waves will be back as a very powerful 8-10 feet swell pushes in. It will still be super-clean so it should be quite a spectacle (photos always very much appreciated). Sea-swimmers will find the best conditions in the shelter of Pembroke. Slightly bigger tides again, with a low of about 3m at 10:40am and a high of about 7.5m at 4:50pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
The winds will fall light and variable on Thursday and then establish a NE’ly direction on Friday, as the UK becomes engulfed by a high pressure system. High pressure pretty much always means dry and settled weather, but it’s not always certain whether it will be sunny or cloudy. Right now, it’s looking most likely to be sunny, but not especially warm, because the air will be wafting towards us from a Scandinavian origin, and the sea that it passes over en-route is only about 8°C at the moment. (Max temps for the islands will be about 10-11°C and min temps will be about 6°C).
Surf and the Water
The tides will be getting bigger, with highs of about 8m on Thursday and 8.6m on Friday (around dawn and dusk). The surf will be a clean 5-7 feet on Thursday and a slightly choppy 4-5 feet on Friday. Swimming conditions will be good on all coasts on Thursday, but it might be wise to avoid the waves of the west coast, then on Friday the south coast will certainly be best.
The Weekend
Weather
The breeze will veer to a moderate E’ly but there will be very little change apart from that; the weather mostly sunny and dry as a bone, the top temperatures around 10-11°C. If that winds feeling a bit chilly for you then southwestern parts of the island will offer you the best shelter.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean west-coast surf, probably around 4-6 feet (at an early estimate). The west coast will also be best for swimming, but maybe best to avoid the spots that are really exposed to the swell, such as Vazon and Portinfer. Spring tides, with highs around dawn and dusk (roughly 9.1m on Saturday and 9.5m on Sunday).
The next forecast update will be with you on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway