Monday
Weather
A cloudy, rather cold (6-8°C) but surprisingly comfortable day. The comfortable feeling coming from the lack of wind; just a light force 2 NNE’ly, so barely noticeable when you head out for a walk or a bike-ride. During the second half of the night, the cloud might clear for quite some time, allowing the temperature to plunge to about 2°C with a ground frost.
Surf and the Water
If you don’t mind the cold air then the swimming conditions will be lovely on all coasts due to the lightness of the wind. The west coast surf will also be lovely and clean, at roughly 2-3 feet, much the same size as on Sunday. A tiny tidal range, with high water just 6.7m at 2:40pm.
Tuesday
Weather
Partial sunshine in the morning, but probably cloudy though the afternoon and evening. Max temp 8-9°C. Feeling very comfortable for most of the day, with just a very light SW’ly breeze in the morning, increasing to moderate force 4 in the late afternoon, then strengthening to fresh force 5 or strong force 6 overnight, with rain likely to set in before dawn.
Surf and the Water
Clean surf again, roughly 1-3 feet, and the swimming conditions should be pretty smooth again, so long as you don’t leave it too late in the day. The tides will be a bit larger than on Monday, with a high of 7.2m at 4pm.
Wednesday
Weather
A very different day to the settled weather of late. Strong force 6-7 SSW’ly winds will bring mist and drizzle for the majority of the day, occasionally intensifying to a heavier downpour. It certainly won’t feel very nice when you are out and about, but with a steady temperature of 9-11°C you won’t have to burn quite so much oil to heat your houses.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be clean but quite difficult to manage due to the wind strength, picking up to 5-6 feet by the time we hit the 7.8m high tide at 5pm. Not many good places for swimming really, but if you’re really keen then Fermain and Havelet should be ok in the late afternoon.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Strong WSW’ly winds on both days, but particularly strong on Thursday. As for the weather, that will be a sequence of sunny spells alternating with brief squally showers (and no doubt a few pretty rainbows). However, there might also be one or two more prolonged spells of rain, as week cold fronts pass eastwards. The temperature should peak between 11-12°C on Thursday, but with the steady advance of cooler air we can only expect a max of about 9-10°C on Friday.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be very big and messy (best left to the windsurfers and kite-surfers really), but the extreme shelter of Fermain and Havelet should mean that super-keen swimmers continue to find reasonably smooth conditions.
The Weekend
Weather
It’s a long way off, so the precise timing and placement of weather systems could easily change as the weekend approaches. However, the current expectation is for a very potent looking low-pressure system to swing through the area on Saturday, bringing gales and heavy rain. Then, on Sunday, it looks as though a ridge of high pressure will topple across the area, giving us a day of much drier and calmer conditions. Keep an eye on the forecast updates to see how the story develops.
Surf and the Water
As with the weather, the details are uncertain, but I think we can be pretty sure of some very rough seas around the islands. Furthermore, with tidal highs of about 9.2m on Saturday and 9.4m on Sunday, I think we can be sure that Guernsey Met will be issuing alerts/warnings for the coast roads… Certainly for the west coast on both days, and quite possibly for the east coast on Saturday.
The next forecast update should be with you on Wednesday...
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway