Wednesday
Weather
A very different day to the settled weather of late. SSW’ly winds will pick up to strong force 6-7 through the morning, bringing mist and drizzle for the majority of the day, occasionally intensifying to a heavier downpour. It certainly won’t feel very nice when you are out and about, but with a steady temperature of 9-10°C you won’t have to burn quite so much oil to heat your houses.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be clean but quite difficult to manage due to the wind strength, picking up to 4-5 feet by the time we hit the 7.8m high tide at 5pm. Not many good places for swimming really, but if you’re really keen then Fermain and Havelet should be ok in the late afternoon.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Two days that are too similar to separate; strong WSW’ly winds throughout, and the temperature remaining pretty constant between 8 and 10°C, only dipping slightly below that when the heaviest showers sweep through. That brings me nicely on to the weather, as this will simply be an alternating sequence of long sunny/clear spells and brief squally showers (and no doubt a few pretty rainbows for decorations). The most sheltered areas to go walking, will be around Town, and along the coast between Havelet and Jerbourg.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be very big and messy (best left to the windsurfers and kite-surfers really), but the extreme shelter of Fermain and Havelet should mean that super-keen swimmers continue to find reasonably smooth conditions.
The Weekend
Weather
Not a huge amount of change as we go through the weekend, just a subtle shift from a strong WSW’ly wind to a strong WNW’ly. This will simply be because the low-pressure system that is the cause of all these squally showers etc, will be shifting position from Northern Britain to the North Sea and then Scandinavia. As this happens, the Channel Islands will gradually come under the influence of a ridge of high pressure, which will not do much to reduce the wind-strength but will lead to a steady reduction of the showers. This means that Saturday morning will see quite a lot of showers, Saturday afternoon will see fewer and Sunday should be mostly (if not entirely) dry. As with the previous days, it’s going to be those eastern parts of the island, with steep hills and cliffs, that will offer the most shelter and therefore the most comfortable conditions for an outing.
Surf and the Water
Very rough and choppy waves, fluctuating between about 8 and 12 feet on the west coast. However, once again, Fermain will offer an oasis of smooth water to swimmers. As for the tides, with highs (shortly after dawn and dusk) of about 9.2m on Saturday and 9.4m on Sunday, I think we can be sure that Guernsey Met will be issuing alerts/warnings.
Next Week
Weather
High pressure looks set to establish itself over Ireland, and given that the air flows clockwise around high-pressure systems, this means that our winds will veer NW’ly as it approaches (Monday and Tuesday) and then NE’ly as it settles (through the rest of the week). The temperature will gradually decline, as the air will be coming from cooler origins, but the weather should be mostly dry and we should see a good amount of sunshine, so it really shouldn’t feel too bad. This will be the home straight to the Vernal Equinox (next weekend), so there should be a definite sense that spring is in the air. Enjoy!
Surf and the Water
I’m afraid that surfers don’t have a lot to look forward to, given that the low-pressure systems will generally be confined to the American half of the Atlantic, and that our local wind directions won’t be favourable for any of the regular breaks. However, keep an eye out for occasional lulls in the wind strength, which could allow any underlying ground-swell to be clean and shapely. As for our cold-water swimmers… generally the south coast will offer the best conditions them. The tidal range will gradually decline as the week progresses, starting with highs of over 9m on Monday, and finishing with highs of under 8m on Friday.
The next forecast update should be with you on Friday…
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