Thursday
Weather
So this week’s heat proved to be much greater than expected. The relatively cold sea temperatures doing very little to inhibit the barrage of very warm air from the far south. Perhaps the biggest and best surprise is that it is now expected to continue right into Thursday. The wind a force 3-4 E’ly through the morning, then backing to a force 4-5 ENE’ly in the afternoon. This means the 16°C max temperature, will come fairly early in the day, late morning or lunchtime, rather than in the late afternoon, as it has been on the previous days. Sure the evening will still be ok for something like a barbecue, if you are in a very sheltered area, but it is really the first half of the day that you want to be making the most of.
Surf and the Water
The last day of relatively good surf, but even this will only be around 2 feet and clean, Whether you are surfing or swimming, the west coast will be the best place to go during the morning, whilst it’s warmest. Looking ahead to late afternoon, then heading south to Petit Port and Jaonnet Bay will be best, if you fancy a low-tide swim.
Friday
Weather
The force 5-6 NE’ly wind will have a really chilly feel to it, but it will still be fantastic for such things as drying the laundry or going kite-surfing. The temperature will only reach 10-11°C on this day, so yes you may be donning your jumpers and jackets again, but you’re still going to need your sunglasses, as there will be plenty of long sunny spells, with the UV index peaking at 5.
Surf and the Water
The west coast waves will be tiny and choppy. The windsurfing and kite-surfing conditions will be pretty good though. As for the best swimming conditions, we are definitely looking to the south coast for this; probably Saint’s Bay around the late-morning high tide, then around Petit Port or Jaonnet Bay for the late afternoon low.
The Weekend
Weather
Both days dry and partly sunny, because high pressure will still be in charge of our weather. However, it’s a different high pressure system from the one that gave us all the warmth in the first half of the week. That one was centred over Europe and the clockwise movement of air around the system, meant that we were drawing in air from very low latitudes. This next high pressure system is centred in the North Atlantic and the clockwise movement of air will therefore draw down air from very high latitudes. Daily max temps only 8-9°C, nightly min temps just 5-6°C. At least the wind won’t be quite as strong as on Friday though; just a force 4-5 NE’ly on Saturday, followed by a force 3-4 NW’ly on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
The surf is looking pretty awful I’m afraid, but sea swimmers will still find suitably smooth waters down on the south coast. The tidal range will be medium-large (much smaller than earlier in the week), with highs in the middle of the day and lows in the early evenings.
Next Week
Weather
The bizarre snow story is still expected, for the UK, with Arctic air streaming in and causing wintry showers to form along the coasts of the Irish Sea and the North Sea and, then continue to white-cap downwind hills such as Bodmin Moor and the Sussex Downs. As the situation continues, we might even see the development of small-scale low pressure systems, which would lead to larger dumps of snow over greater swathes of central Britain. But what does that all mean for us here in the Channel Islands? Through the first half of the week, we are probably looking at long spells of sunshine, punctuated by the odd fleeting shower of rain, hail or perhaps sleet; winds fresh NNW’ly, temperatures in the mid-single figures. Through the second half of the week, it’s probably going to be a cloudier affair, with a few longer spells of rain; cooler than ideal for the Easter hols, but nothing wintry; winds fresh WNW’ly, temperatures in the high single figures.
Surf and the Water
Unfortunately it’s looking like a shocking week for surfing. However, I guess we have had a lot of good/excellent day’s lately, so it had to happen. Windsurfers and kite-surfers will find plenty of opportunity to whizz around though. If a daily sea-swim is your thing, then it’s going to be all about the south coast through the first half of the week, and then over to the east coast for the second half.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway