Tuesday
Weather
Well the wind really made a difference between Sunday’s and Monday’s temperatures. The sun shone brilliantly throughout, but Sunday’s force 4 NE’ly only brought air from the chilly Channel, whereas Monday’s force 3 E’ly wafted toasty French air towards up, taking the max temp from around 15°C on Sunday to 21°C on Monday. With Tuesday’s wind and weather looking just the same as Monday’s, we are probably going to see an even higher max, of 22 or perhaps even 23°C. Hopefully you all managed to avoid sunburn on Monday. If so then keep up the good work, slip slap and wrap (as they say down-under) because the UV index will peak at 8 during the middle part of the day. Then, after such a hot day, look out for some thunderstorms around dusk or maybe a bit later in the night.
Surf and the Water
More beautifully clean west-coast waves, probably around 1-2 feet, so perfect for beginners and longboards, but don’t all come at once because that’s no fun. The tidal range will be pretty small, so the low tide waves might well be worth a bash (early morning and early evening) and that will also be a good way to avoid the sunburn that would come with a high-tide surf in the middle of the day.
Wednesday
Weather
The threat of thundery showers will spill over from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. These showers are always a bit hit and miss, because they could pass by slightly to the east or the west, and because the cloud-base will be quite high, which means that a lot of the rain evaporates on the way down. Either way, wet or dry, the morning is expected to be cloudy and muggy, then the afternoon and evening should be dry and sunny. The wind will be a force 3-4 SE’ly in the morning, veering to a W’ly direction by evening. Max temp, just 17-18°C.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be small and pristine again (up until the evening when the breeze turns onshore), and the tidal range will be even smaller than on Tuesday, with a high of just a 7.1m at lunchtime.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
With the wind now blowing from a NW’ly direction, we won’t be able to borrow any more heat from France, but we should still reach the respectable kind of mid-teen temperatures that are normal for early June. Furthermore, that wind will only be light force 2-3 so it’s going to feel very comfortable under the mostly sunny skies. At the moment it looks as though the cloudiest time will be on Friday evening, when a thundery low-pressure system is expected to spin up from Biscay into Normandy and possibly give us a sprinkling on its western flank.
Surf and the Water
2-3 foot surf on Thursday, dropping off to just 1 foot or possibly flat on Friday. The winds will be light enough to keep the waves clean though, and this (much like the previous days) will also be good news for sea-swimmers and for kayakers and paddle-boarders. The small tides will continue, with highs of just under 7m in the early afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
There is uncertainty about the timing and positioning of that thundery low on Friday night, so there is a chance that any cloudy/wet weather associated with that will linger into Saturday morning. However, high pressure should be back in charge by the end of the day and then through Sunday. Meaning that the majority of the weekend should be dry and sunny. The breeze just a gentle N’ly, meaning that the temperature continues to peak in the mid-teens and the air feels pleasant and comfortable.
Surf and the Water
The surf story is very uncertain… best case scenario 2-3 feet, worst case scenario flat as a pancake. The most likely outcome will be something in the middle, which will be of little interest to experienced surfers, but plenty of safe fun for beginner youngsters. Medium-sized tides, with lows in the late mornings and highs in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway