Wednesday
Weather
Super-sunny, with a very high UV index (at least 8, maybe 9) meaning that sun-cream and hats etc will be essential. I’m emphasizing this especially because it’s not going to be particularly hot, so you could get lulled into a false sense of security. Max temp only around 16°C, due to a cool N’ly airflow (head to the south coast to feel a bit warmer).
Surf and the Water
Flat surf but lovely smooth water for swimming and other activities down on the south coast in the afternoon. Furthermore, with larger tidal movements, there should be a good amount of sand exposed between mid-morning and mid-afternoon (low water will be shortly after midday, high water will be around breakfast time and dinner time).
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday will be another day of unbroken sunshine, but with the wind backing to a very light NW’ly the sunshine should have enough power to lift the mercury to either the 17 or the 18°C mark. Friday then much cloudier, with most and drizzle until sunshine returns late afternoon. However, with slightly milder air wafting gently in from the west, the temperature will only be slightly lower than on Thursday.
Surf and the Water
Two days of near flat surf. There’s just the smallest chance of some dribbly 1-foot waves at Vazon, which might just about be enough for very young learners. As for the swimming and paddle-boarding etc, well the wind should be light enough that all coasts will be lovely for those activities. Spring tides, with lows around lunchtime and highs around breakfast and dinner time (the highest tide being 9.3m at 8pm on Friday).
The Weekend
Weather
Partial sunshine on both days, and only a small risk of the odd shower. With the wind now shifting to a gentle or moderate NE’ly, the influence of the cool Channel water does mean that temperatures aren’t going to climb any higher than on Thursday and Friday. However, that should still feel very pleasant and comfortable, especially in southern and western parishes.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast waves might just pick up to a rideable size (probably 2 feet), but this is really quite uncertain at the moment I’m afraid. Regarding swimming and other smooth-water activities, there will be very little change from the previous days, with the prime locations generally being along the south coast during the afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are very tricky to forecast. They could be very wet indeed, or they could be totally dry, but they are unlikely to half way between. This is due to a thundery low pressure system moving very slowly from Biscay to Paris. While it does so, a soggy weather front will either be parked right over the top of us, or perhaps it will be parked about fifty miles to the south. Hopefully by the time of my next update, I will have a slightly better idea of which scenario is more likely. Either way, this low-pressure system should have died a death by Thursday, leaving us to end the week with a high pressure system over the UK and the North Sea, which would mean that temperatures climb up into the twenties, thanks to a dry continental airflow.
Surf and the Water
The surf is likely to be either flat or very small, with only a slim chance that some swell will reach the Island from a rather weak mid-Atlantic depression. The swimming conditions will generally be best on either the south coast or the west coast, and the tidal range will be shrinking day by day, until Friday’s lunchtime high is only just over 7m.
The next forecast update will be on Thursday or Friday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway