Friday
Weather
This is very much at the straight forward and predictable end of the forecast period. The moist WSW’ly breeze brought mist and hill-fog yesterday evening, just as expected, and that is going to hang around until around 2 or 3pm, when the breeze starts to veer NW’ly and the airflow becomes a little drier. Throughout the misty, murky hours, there will be a bit of an east/west split, with areas like Town and Fermain being quite sheltered and only catching a little light rain. However, over in the west and around the airport, the drizzle and rain will be a bit heavier and much more persistent. Come 4 or 5pm though, when the weekend vibe is starting to kick in, we shall also see a distinct improvement, with clouds lifting and parting to give us increasing amounts of evening sunshine. So yes, a BBQ could still be on the cards, but don’t forget your jumper because the island won’t have heated up much in the daytime (max temp only 15-16°C).
Surf and the Water
Tiny, choppy west-coast surf but lovely smooth water on the east coast for swimming and other activities. Big strawberry moon tides, with highs of about 9.1m at 8:10am and 9.4m at 8:50pm.
The Weekend
Weather
And this is when the magic starts to happen, and by ‘magic’ I’m not talking about anything positive or negative (that’s just a matter of opinion); rather, I’m talking about a swirl of confusion being cast over any person/computer that has to forecast the weather for the week ahead. The Jetstream (roughly 30000 feet in the air) is very slow at the moment, as is typical of mid-summer. A weak jet-stream tends to meander all over the place, rather than simply blasting across the Atlantic from west to east, and sometimes this leads to a portion of it being cut off like an Oxbow Lake. That’s what’s happening high above our heads this weekend, and it’s leading to the development of a low pressure system over Northern France, which is going to hang around for about a week, rather than swiftly whizzing eastwards as they usually do when the jet-stream is strong. So what can we expect weather-wise?… Saturday, probably bright and pleasant in the morning and at lunchtime, then turning very wet for the late afternoon and the overnight period. Sunday is then expected to start very wet but become lovely and sunny for the afternoon and evening. Very light winds on both days, and pleasantly mild temperatures but nothing that you would call hot. The most important thing to emphasise is the uncertainty about rainfall timing. Bands of heavy showery rain will be swirling around this low-pressure system like a Catherine-wheel. It’s going to be very hard to predict more than a few hours ahead, so you can use this forecast as a starting point but it would be a good idea to keep checking the Channel Islands Weather Radar (on the Jersey Met website ) to see if you are about to get soaked or not.
Surf and the Water)
Two more days of near flat surf. However, if we do have any rideable ripples down at Vazon (possibly big enough for very young learners) then at least they will be lovely and clean, thanks to the lack of wind. As for the swimming and paddle-boarding etc, well that’s going to be lovely in all parts of the island, especially around the spring-tide highs at breakfast time and dusk.
Next Week
Weather
So, hopefully, from my description of the bigger picture (in ‘The Weekend’ section), you will appreciate that I have to be very broad-brushed with the rest of this forecast, giving the same mixed-bag of weather for every day of the week... Light breezes from a variety of directions, but mainly N’ly or E’ly; temperatures generally peaking between 15°C and 19°C, depending on whether the middle part of the day coincides with a spell of sunshine or a dollop of heavy rain. One thing we can be sure of, is that the grass and the hedge-rows will be growing as if they’re on steroids.
Surf and the Water
The tides will gradually get smaller until Friday’s lunchtime high is only just over 7m. As for the surf… that will stay clean but absolutely miniscule (if not flat). If there’s any hint of a larger swell, then that will probably come in the first weekend of July, but it might just get here by Friday, thanks to the mid-week development of a relatively deep low-pressure system on the mid-Atlantic.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway