Monday
Weather
So far so good, with Sunday’s heaviest showers steering clear of the islands and some lengthy spells of warm sunshine in the afternoon. Likewise for Monday, there will be some heavy showers sweeping across the area but there will be much more in the way of dryness and sunshine. Timings are still very uncertain, but the broad summary is that the sunshine will be most abundant in the morning, and the showers will be most likely to hit the islands in the late afternoon and evening. Max temp 18 or 19°C, winds light SE’ly in the morning and light NE’ly in the afternoon.
Surf and the Water
Flat surf but gorgeous smooth water for swimming, paddle-boarding and kayaking, especially on the west coast in the morning and on the south coast in the afternoon. High tide will be about 8.8m at 10am and low tide will be about 1.8m at 4:20pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
The only slight change as we go into Tuesday, is that the showery low-pressure system that’s in charge of the current weather, will slip eastwards towards Paris, putting the Channel Islands in a light NW’ly airflow. This will bring in air with higher humidity, meaning that we could see quite a bit of mist and hill-fog as well as the usual scattering of heavy showers. As a result, the sunshine will have a bit of a struggle on its hands, so we probably won’t manage any more than 17°C. Moving on to Wednesday, the low-pressure system will slip slightly further to the east and as a result, the showers should become fewer and lighter. We will probably also see an increase in afternoon sunshine, so the temperature ought to peak at 18°C on that day.
Surf and the Water)
Two more days of near-flat surf but gorgeous smooth water for swimming, paddle-boarding and kayaking, especially on the south and east coasts. The tidal range will get a little smaller day by day, with highs in the late mornings and lows in the late afternoons / early evenings.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
For a few days now, forecast models have consistently predicted dryness for these days, so it looks as though this is pretty certain. Furthermore, it’s going to be lovely and warm… bright Sunshine slightly tempered by a W’ly breeze through Thursday, then a little cloudier on Friday but with barely any wind at all. Temperatures will probably peak at 18°C on Thursday, then 19 or 20°C on Friday.
Surf and the Water
Another couple of days with near-flat surf but gorgeous smooth water for swimming, paddle-boarding and kayaking. The tidal range will get even smaller, until Friday’s lunchtime high is only just over 7m.
The Weekend
Weather
The anticlockwise flow around a low-pressure system in the nearby Atlantic, will bring a moderate S’ly wind to the islands, importing warm French air, but also a spell of showery rain. It’s uncertain when that showery rain will arrive, but there’s a good chance that it will be very late in the day. Fingers crossed for that, because the wind will veer SW’ly on Sunday, leading to much higher humidity and most probably a day of mist and drizzle.
Surf and the Water
That Atlantic low-pressure system should yield the first decent-sized surf that we’ve seen for a while; hopefully 2-3 feet and super-clean on Saturday, then likely 3-4 feet and a little choppier on Sunday. The tidal highs, just a little under 7m around 2pm on Saturday and around 3pm on Sunday.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway