Guernsey Weather Fox

Thursday

Weather

Sunny! Simple as that… until we get to late afternoon or early evening, when a few hours of patchy cloud will invade from the west. However, it won’t be enough to spoil your barbecue plans or your end-of-school celebrations. The daytime max temp will be 21°C and the force 2-3 NW’ly breeze will mean that the south and east coasts will feel marginally warmer than the north and west. (Max UV… 8).

Surf and the Water

The west-coast surf will be almost as small#, sloppy and junky as on Wednesday. However, that will still be plenty good enough for absolute beginners to get out there and have a good time. The water will also be good for all other aquatic activity (except for windsurfing and kite-surfing), especially on the south and east coasts. Sea temp, roughly 16°C. High water late morning low water late afternoon.

Friday

Weather

The wind will have switched to a NE’ly direction overnight, bringing a wodge of slightly cooler air to the islands. This will result in slightly brighter sunshine and better visibility than the previous days. However, the temperature will only climb to 19°C along the north and east coasts, and the top temperature should be 20°C in the more sheltered southwestern parts. (Max UV… 8).

Surf and the Water

The cross-shore wind should be lightest around dawn, meaning this is really the only time when the 2 foot west-coast surf will be clean. However, it should still be rideable during the middle of the day, when the tide is more favourable (high water will be about 7.8m at 11:40am). For the very best swimming condition either head to the south coast or to one of the northern corners of the west-coast bays (such as by Fort Hommet or Fort Grande Rocque).

The Weekend

Weather

Both days super sunny, with the wind just veering a little to an ENE’ly direction. This will mean that we will pull in air with a longer land track, from Eastern Europe and Belgium, before finally reaching the Channel. This will mean slightly higher temperatures (once again with the greatest warmth being in the southwest of the island). Max temps probably 22°C on Saturday and 23°C on Sunday. (Max UV… 8 on both days).

Surf and the Water

Clean 1-2 foot surf is likely on Saturday but it might well fall flat on Sunday. Both days absolutely gorgeous for swimming, especially on the south coast and some parts of the west. The lunchtime high tide will be the most fabulous time of all, but of course it will be extra important to keep your sun-cream topped up at that time of day.

Next Week

Trying to pin down the breakdown of a hot spell is always very tricky for weather-forecasting models. However, they have become far more reliable in recent years, so we don’t tend to see the shifting goalposts any more. Nope, these days, if the model says it will be Wednesday, then it will probably continue to be Wednesday rather than get pushed back to Thursday and Friday. The really difficult thing to say is just how severe the breakdown will be and what lies on the other side. At the moment, it looks most likely that Monday to Wednesday will be even hotter than the weekend (quite possibly our hottest days of the year so far), then on Wednesday evening some thundery showers will move into the area, heralding a cloudy and muggy Thursday, before further showers usher in cooler air for Thursday night and for Friday. As I said, the detail of the change is uncertain, but I’m feeling quite confident about the timing.

Surf and the Water

The west coast surf will either be tiny or flat throughout. But the breeze will always be offshore in that part of the island, so it will generally have the smoothest water for swimming, kayaking and coasteering etc. The tides will generally be medium in size, with lows in the mornings and highs in the afternoons.