Sunday
Weather
Much like the two days before it, we will have a cloudy (but probably dry) morning followed by a sunny afternoon. The big difference will be the wind though, still westerly but lighter than Saturday and much much lighter than Friday. The highest temps will still be in Town and other sheltered eastern parts (around 21°C), but the rest of the island will only be a degree cooler and they should feel relatively pleasant.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf should maintain the same size (about 2 feet) and sloppiness as through the second half of Saturday. The wind will be a tad lighter though, meaning that many bays will be more attractive for swimming and paddle-boarding. However, if it’s absolute smoothness you want then the east coast will really be the best.
Monday
Weather
Further subtle improvements, as the W’ly wind falls even lighter, allowing the temperature to peak around half a degree higher than on Sunday. The skies will continue to be a mixed bag of cloudy and sunny, with the sunshine most likely in the afternoon, the UV index still hitting highs of 7, so we can’t forget about the risk of sunburn for quite a while yet. High water 7m at 1pm.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf should be just about rideable, but it will only be about knee to waist-high on an average 10yo. As for the swimming and paddle-boarding, well that will be lovely everywhere but especially so on the east coast again. High water 6.7m at 1:50pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
A low-pressure system will be over Ireland, which is close enough that we are likely to be affected by one of its associated weather-fronts. However, the current expectation is that this will be during the night-time, leaving daylight hours on both days to be dry and partly sunny again. The light breeze gradually backing to a warmer SSW’ly direction, meaning that we could hit a top temperature of 22°C in Town, most other areas being just a degree lower.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be virtually flat on Tuesday, increasing to about 2-3 feet and clean by the end of Wednesday. Great conditions on both days for such things as swimming, kayaking and paddle-boarding. The tidal range will continue to be very small, with a mere gesture towards low water mid-mornings and a similarly subtle hint of a high in the mid-afternoons.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
The next low-pressure system looks set to pack a harder punch to the Channel Islands. Because this is at the back-end of the forecast period, I can’t speak too confidently about the timing of events. However, current expectations are for a warm and dry Thursday morning/lunchtime, with increasing SSE’ly winds, followed by a very wet end to the day, with the strong wind becoming variable in direction, as the depression passes almost directly overhead. Friday then looks like a day of sunny spells and isolated showers, with a fresh and chilly NW’ly wind.
Surf and the Water
Potentially some excellent west-coast surf on Thursday, but probably no bigger than 3-4 feet. Then much bigger and messier waves on Friday, although there could be some good clean fun along the south coast at times. The tidal range will still be on the small side, but it will be slightly larger than the previous days, with lows in the late mornings and highs in the late afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Monday or Tuesday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway