Wednesday
Weather
Much the same as the previous days, it’s going to be cloudy at times (mainly in the morning) and sunny at times (mainly in the afternoon). There will be showers moving toward the islands from France, but they will be weakening as they approach and there is a high chance that they won’t even reach the island. The temperature will still be marginally lower than we would hope for in August, peaking at around 19-20°C, but the wind will be very light indeed (E’ly in the morning and NW’ly in the afternoon) so it should feel really comfortable and pleasant.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf should pick up to about 2 feet and be lovely and clean. Likewise, the water will be beautifully smooth for swimming and paddle-boarding. The tidal range will continue to be very small, with a mere gesture towards low water mid-morning and a similarly subtle hint of a high in the mid-afternoon.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday looks like the wettest day of the week, with a spell of rain arriving late morning, then clearing to occasional showers in the afternoon. With this grotty weather we will also get a bit of a blast of S’ly wind (fresh force 5), which will then veer to a WSW’ly in the evening. That wind direction will hold fast through the night and through much of Friday and it will increase to a gusty force 6 when showers whistle through from time to time.
Surf and the Water
Really clean 1-2 foot surf on Thursday, increasing to choppy 5-6 foot surf on Friday. Great windsurfing on both days. As for the swimming, Thursday will be best along the west coast during the afternoon, and Friday will be best at Fermain (also in the afternoon). The tidal range will still be on the small side, but it will be slightly larger than the previous days, with lows in the late mornings and highs in the late afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
As another rain/shower-laden low-pressure system swings through the Channel from east to west, we will basically see a repetition of Thursday and Fridays’ wind and weather sequence. The temperature will probably be a degree lower, but the difference will be imperceptible because most people will be in jumpers or jackets due to the wind and weather.
Surf and the Water
Some great quality 4-5 foot surf on Saturday, particularly in the morning and early afternoon. Then, much choppier waves of a similar size all through Sunday. Great windsurfing on both days. Medium-sized tides, with high water around breakfast and dinnertime and low water around lunchtime.
Next Week
Weather
Monday to Wednesday looks mostly sunny and settled, with just a gentle W’ly breeze keeping the air-temperature close to the August average. Then, on Thursday and Friday, an Atlantic low pressure system will move over Ireland, giving us a stronger but warmer SW’ly airflow and probably the odd spell of rain or showers.
Surf and the Water
Probably a full week of reasonably clean, reasonably sizey surf. Most likely in the 3-4 foot range, which certainly isn’t too bad for this time of year. The tidal range will be pretty large though, with highs of between 8.7m and 9.2m, so the quality of your sessions will vary according to your timing and your crowd-dodging skills.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway