Guernsey Weather Fox

Saturday

Weather

Hopefully you have all realised that my previous forecast for this weekend has well and truly gone out of date. The idea that a showery weather-front would chase the warm SE’ly away and usher in a slightly cooler SW’ly has not changed. However, it has been clear for a day or two now that this weather-front will sweep through in the early morning rather than the late afternoon. The effects of this change are that max temperatures have been revised downwards (20°C is most likely now, or perhaps 21°C at a push in St Peter Port), the east coast will now be the most sheltered and comfortable. Coming back to that weather-front now; that should have cleared eastwards by 9 or 10am at the latest, leaving some puddles on the ground but no further rain except for the odd random shower that might briefly clip the islands later in the day. Sunshine will generally be in rather short supply, although there is the chance of a beautiful blaze at sunset.

Surf and the Water

The west-coast surf will be about 2-feet and fairly clean. Tides will be high around dawn and dinner time and it will be low at lunchtime.

Sunday

Weather

Thanks to the early passage of that weather-front, Sunday is now set to be the sunniest day of the weekend by a country-mile. However, there will be a moderate force 4 W’ly wind all day, which will mean that the only coast which will really feel warm is the east. Max temps 19°C in most areas, but 20 or perhaps even 21°C around Town and Fermain. The tide will be just under 9m high at breakfast time and just over 9m at dinner time.

Surf and the Water

The west-coast surf will be 3 feet and choppy but this currently looks like the most surfable day since last weekend. As for the swimming, well that will definitely be best at Fermain, but it will also be reasonably good around the corner at Moulin Huet, Saints and Petit Bot.

Monday

A moderate N’ly breeze will mean that most areas feel quite cool despite wall to wall sunshine. To overcome that chilly feeling, simply head down to the south-coast beaches, where the cliffs will act as a giant wind-break (‘and a particularly beautiful one’ I might add). Max temps 19°C in most areas, but 20°C in those south-coast bays.

Surf and the Water

The west-coast surf will be very low quality but it should still be rideable for keen young learners. Down on the south coast, the swimming conditions will be divine, especially around low water in the early afternoon. Big tidal movements, with highs of over 9m at breakfast time and dinner time.

The Rest of Next Week

Every day will be mostly dry and sunny. The only small threat to that statement will be when the fresh NE’ly wind on Tuesday and Wednesday leads to lines of bubbly cumulus cloud, running from the Dover strait towards the Channel Islands. These clouds are bound to cast a shadow from time to time and there’s a slim chance that they might even squeeze out a brief light shower. Things are looking much more solid on Thursday and Friday though, as that NE’ly wind is expected to relax to light force 2-3, meaning that it should feel noticeably warmer under almost cloud-free skies. Temperatures will probably peak around 19-20°C on Tuesday and Wednesday (head to the south coast to feel warmest), and then pick up to 21 or maybe 22°C on Thursday and Friday.

Surf and the Water

Spring tides all week, with highs of over 9m Tuesday to Wednesday, dropping off to around 8.5m by Friday. The best places for swimming will always be along the south coast, although some west-coast nooks will be lovely at times too (especially later in the week). As for the surfing… Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s NE’ly wind will be strong enough to ruin any west-coast ripples, but not really strong enough to whip up anything bigger at Pembroke. Moving on to Thursday and Friday, there’s a slim chance of some clean little waves for longboarders but we will have to wait until nearer the time before there is any certainty about that.