Thursday
Weather
Another dry and mostly sunny day. Probably a degree warmer than on Wednesday though, as we will replace the force 3 N’ly wind with a barely noticeable force 2 W’ly breeze. The temperature will probably reach 19°C in all parts except Town, where it should comfortably climb to 20°C.
Surf and the Water
Another day to enjoy the bountiful waves of ex-hurricane Larry’s. Probably a foot or two smaller than on Wednesday, but a little bit cleaner and very consistent. Furthermore, with the tidal movements almost as small as on Wednesday, you can pretty much surf the whole day through. Likewise, if it’s swimming, kayaking or paddle-boarding that you’re in to, then that will also be good in all places and at all times. High water, just 7.1m at 3:50pm.
Friday
Weather
Throughout the week, with every update, forecasting models have consistently predicted that a soggy weather-front will sweep through on Friday. So I think we can be quite confident that this will happen. The only real uncertainty, is precisely when it will rain and how much it will rain. Current estimations are for about 2-4mm (that’s less than a quarter of what we received on Monday night/Tuesday morning) and we expect it will probably come in the late afternoon or evening. Therefore, with a dry day ahead of it, outdoor work and sports events should be able to go unhindered. Furthermore, the moderate force 4 S’ly wind will bring relatively warm air to the islands, so we should still reach 19°C or 20°C, despite it being quite a lot cloudier than the previous couple of days.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean surf, but smaller again at just 2 feet, perfect for any beginners or kids who found the waves too large on other days. As for the swimming, the west and north coasts will be best, especially towards high tide, which will be 7.7m at 5pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Well this is where we get into uncertain territory again. Not so much on Saturday, which should be mostly sunny with only the most isolated shower. Pretty much about as average as a September day could be. For us, the biggest question mark is over Sunday‘s weather. The reason for this is because a low pressure system will have developed somewhere over the southwest quadrant of the British Isles. The precise position will spell the difference between a full day of rain, a totally dry day or just a handful of showers. That’s as much as I can say about Sunday for now, so be sure to check the forecast update on Friday evening.
Surf and the Water
Saturday’s surf doesn’t look anything special (2-3 feet and choppy), but it should be rideable. Then on Sunday, it’s looking much better, with at least another foot or two of swell and quite a high chance of an offshore wind. The moon will be very nearly full so the tides will be responding with some pretty large movements, the highs will be around dinner-time (roughly 8.4m on Saturday and 8.9m on Sunday).
Next Week
Weather
Gentle NE’ly or E’ly breezes all week. This is a simple recipe for dry air of very average, or perhaps slightly higher than average, temperature. So the simple summary is… a very pleasant week, well-worth taking advantage of, when you consider that the Equinox is on Wednesday and the Equilux is on Saturday, meaning that from Saturday onwards the days will actually be shorter the nights!
Surf and the Water
Early indications suggest clean or cleanish waves throughout the week, ranging between 2 feet on the smallest days and 4-5 feet on the biggest. The best swimming conditions will always be on the south coast, especially during the afternoons, when the low spring tides will expose lots of beautiful sand at the likes of Petit Port, Moulin Huet and Jaonnet Bay.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway