Wednesday
Weather
Another peach of a day, with hazy sunshine throughout and just a very light E’ly breeze, backing to a gentle N’ly in the evening. The dawn temperature will be fairly low (around 11°C) so there will be quite a lot of dew and a bit of a crisp feeling, but it will soon spruce up to a similar temperature to that of Tuesday (max 19-20°C).
Surf and the Water
More dreamy September surf, but this day will really be one for the kids and the longboarders (2 feet and clean). Beautiful conditions for swimming, paddle-boarding and kayaking all around the islands. Big tides mean big currents though, so make sure you are prepared for them. High water will be about 9.3m at 8:20am and about 9.5m at 8:30pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
The forecast for these two days has taken an upward turn, as the low-pressure system that had been destined for Northern Britain now looks set to remain near Iceland and Shetland. We still expect to see evidence of the associated weather-fronts, but they will have weakened and fragmented so much by the time they reach us, that we will probably only see an increase in cloud and perhaps a little mist, rather than any of the previously-expected rain or drizzle. Temperatures are likely to peak at 18-19°C in all parts of the island, except for in Town, where a combination of urban effects and shelter from the gentle W’ly breeze will mean that we could manage 19-20°C there.
Surf and the Water
Sloppy 2-3 feet waves on Thursday, picking up to a strong 4 feet by Friday. As for the swimming conditions, it’s definitely looking best to head east on both days. High tides will be in the early to mid-mornings (still over 9m). Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
Winds will be force 2-3 ESE’ly on Saturday and then force 3-4 S’ly on Sunday, giving us the potential to become warm and toasty on both days. Temperatures are definitely going to get up into the low twenties, but the precise figure will hinge on the cloud to sunshine ratio. At the moment, due to the presence of a shallow low-pressure system in Biscay and Brittany, it looks as though there will be quite a lot of cloud and possibly a few passing showers, but the timing is all very uncertain, so be sure to check the next update to see how the story evolves.
Surf and the Water
Very little change in the size of the surf, but becoming quite a lot cleaner as the wind will be offshore on both days. Medium large tides, with highs in the mid to late mornings and lows in the late afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
A low-pressure system will spin in the north Atlantic for the whole week, about 500 miles west of Ireland. This will initially be deep and moisture-laden due to the infusion of ex-hurricane Odette. However, it will maintain most of its potency throughout the week, as it is contained in situ by a couple of more stable high-pressure systems (over the Azores and Scandinavia). This is quite a typical September set-up, where the UK and the Channel islands hover on the warm side of average for a prolonged period, as air is relentlessly dragged up from Spain and beyond. Certainly the nights will be mild (nowhere near frost-territory), with min temps remaining in the low teens, despite now having more than 12 hours darkness. As for the days, the max temps will probably vary between about 18 and 22°C, as some days will be dry and bright, whilst others are likely to be cloudy and damp.
Surf and the Water
Medium sized tides on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the late mornings, then tiny tides from Wednesday onward, with highs around lunchtime. It’s looking like a fantastic week of surf, with really consistent clean waves of between 3 and 6 feet. Lots of lovely swimming opportunities too, especially on the north coast and in the southern corners of the west-coast bays.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway