Saturday
Weather
This will be the wettest and windiest day that we’ve seen for quite a long time… S’ly force 5 and cloudy at dawn, S’ly force 6 with heavy rain by breakfast time, S’ly F7 to gale F8 and still lashing it down in the afternoon, then finally becoming dry by evening with the wind dropping off to a force 5 WSW’ly. By the end of the day, we will probably have received 20-25mm of rain, which will be a challenge enough for the various drains and gutters, before we have even thought about all the leaves and branches that will have been blown off the trees. Therefore, some localised flooding is highly likely.
Surf and the Water
Clean 3-4 foot surf, but that wind will obviously be very difficult to manage so it will be best to get in as early in the morning as possible. Likewise, for windsurfers, it will probably just be too much during the afternoon, so the morning or evening will be the times to exploit. Low water will be about 4m at 10:10am and high water will be roughly 7.3m at 4:30pm.
Sunday
Weather
Mostly but not entirely dry, just the odd brief shower clipping the islands at times. The wind will be force 5-6 WSW’ly, which ordinarily I wouldn’t be feeling too positive about. However, coming off the back of Saturday’s weather, this will feel relatively fine, especially thanks to some pretty lengthy spells of sunshine. Head east to get the best of it, max temps 15-16°C in most places but probably 16-17°C in Town.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 4-5 feet and quite choppy, but definitely worth a splash. Likewise, the windsurfing and kite-surfing should be an absolute blast. As for the sea-swimming, Fermain will be the best bet by a long-shot. Low water will be about 3.3m at 11:20am and high water will be roughly 7.9m at 5:20pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Monday looks just like Sunday but with a little give and take… heavier showers (perhaps thundery in the morning and evening) balanced by a wind reduction to a force 4-5 SW’ly. That wind-reduction will be rather short-lived though, as we are in for another absolute hammering on Tuesday… force 7 W’ly winds, veering NW’ly in the afternoon and becoming very gusty as the showers become frequent, with a high chance of hail. Max temps 17°C on Monday, followed by a rather dismal 15°C on Tuesday.
Surf and the Water
Reasonably clean 3-5 foot west-coast surf on Monday, followed by extremely messy 4-6 foot waves on Tuesday. That said, there could be some clean fun nuggets down at Petit Bot on Tuesday, when the tide is low at lunchtime.
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
Weather
Wednesday morning looks pretty rough, with further heavy showers and a cold N’ly wind. However, the current expectation is for a significant improvement starting Wednesday afternoon. Winds falling light and the weather becoming dry and sunny. Then on Thursday and Friday, as high pressure builds over France and bulges northwards to cover Southern Britain, it looks as though the Channel Islands will be blessed with a force 3-4 ESE’ly breeze, bringing full-time sunshine and max temps of 18 or possibly even 19°C!
Surf and the Water
Spring tides, with highs of around 9.5m every day (shortly after dawn and dusk). Wednesday will have more big surf on the west coast, very choppy in the morning but becoming fairly clean in the afternoon. (There could be some more little south-coast gems as well, so definitely worth keeping an eye on that). Thursday and Friday currently look incredible, but I’m not sure I dare to believe it… Gentle offshore breezes and 6-8 foot surf, courtesy of ex-hurricane Sam.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
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