Monday
Weather
Another overcast day, but it won’t be quite as mild and murky as a few of the moments that we had over the weekend. With the wind coming directly from the south now (moderate force 4) the longer land-track over France means a slightly drier atmosphere, therefore thinner cloud layers and therefore much less chance of drizzle or hill-fog. Temperatures should hover around 10-11°C both day and night, and the west coast will probably offer the most comfortable conditions for a nice long walk or a bike ride.
Surf and the Water
Absolutely incredible west-coast surf on this day. Perhaps a fraction smaller than Sunday afternoon, but still very powerful and much too big for beginners. West-coast wave heights will be around 8 feet in the morning dropping off to about 6 feet in the afternoon. The North coast waves are always a little uncertain, but I think we can be sure that there will be something rideable up there. Small tides, so timing your session won’t be nearly as critical as usual. Low water will be around dawn and high water will be just 7.3m in the early afternoon.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
As the high-pressure system over France bulges and recedes with the passing of low-pressure systems in the higher latitudes, we will see minor fluctuations in the thickness and height of the cloud sheet. However, the overall story will be one of dryness and reasonably good visibility, with the S’ly breeze gradually becoming lighter and lighter… force 3 on Tuesday then just force 2 on Wednesday. All-in-all, despite the sky being silvery grey rather than blue, we are looking at a couple of very comfortable days (11-12°C) which will be really great for any outdoor sports as well as your basic walks and bike-rides.
Surf and the Water
Tuesday’s surf will be about 4 feet and then Wednesday’s will be about 3 feet… both days really clean. Furthermore, with the wind falling so light, it should be pretty blissful for a winter sea-swim or for a bit of cruise on the kayak or the SUP. Low tides will be mid-morning and high tides will be late afternoon (7.5m Tuesday and 7.7m Wednesday).
Thursday and Friday
Weather
With the high-pressure system becoming centred over Southeast England rather than France, the Channel Islands will find themselves in a SE’ly flow on Thursday and an E’ly on Friday. This means that, apart from a little cloud that results from French fog lifting and drifting offshore, we should start to see increasing amounts of blue sky and brightness. The breeze will be moderate force 4 (a little stronger than the previous days) so jackets will probably be required because there will be a bit of wind-chill to bear in mind, as well as the temperature generally becoming lower anyway (10°C max on Thursday then just 9°C on Friday).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf should be gorgeously clean, probably 4-5 feet on Thursday, dropping slightly to 3-4 feet on Friday. Medium large tides, with lows in the late mornings and highs around dusk.
The Weekend
Weather
Mostly sunny on both days. Perhaps a little frosty in the mornings, but only in the most sheltered areas, as the E’ly breeze will probably stay force 3-4 and this should be enough to generally keep the ground temperature above zero. As for the daytime temps, probably peaking at 8-9°C on both days, but once again, the moderate breeze will probably stop you from taking your jackets off.
Surf and the Water
Two more days of absolutely pristine 3-4 foot surf. What a treat. I guess the only downer is that the tidal range will be getting larger, making it a bit trickier to perfectly time your session. Both highs will be during the hours of darkness (both days) and the lows will be around lunchtime.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway