Bank Holiday Monday
Weather
A very wet day due to the late arrival of a slow-moving weather front. Previously it was expected to have soaked us during the night time but now it looks set to rain on us through virtually every hour of daylight and then it will only die away gradually through the night-time. Some of it will be on the heavy side, so we can expect about 15-20mm which is going to mean big puddles. Winds will be lighter than many recent days though, just a moderate force 4 SW’ly in the morning, dropping off to force 3 around lunchtime, then finishing the day as a very light force 2.
Surf and the Water
Beautifully clean west-coast surf, generally in the range of 4-6 feet. Big tides, but fortunately they won’t get much assistance from the wind on this day, so the west-coast road won’t be quite as messy as it probably was on Sunday night. High water will be about 9.4m at 6:43am and 9.2m at 7:10pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
During Monday night, the wind will have picked up some oomph. Blowing strong fresh force 5 NW’ly by Tuesday morning, then increasing to force 6 for a time around lunchtime. The weather will be so much brighter than Monday though, with copious amounts of sunshine (especially in the afternoon), only punctuated by the briefest of showers, which you would have to be pretty unlucky to get caught out by. Wednesday will then be similarly sunny, but much less windy it will also be dry as a bone. Great as all that sounds, these two days will be the coldest of this week, with the temperature only getting up to 9°C at best (first single figure maxima since early December).
Surf and the Water
The only hope of a clean wave on Tuesday will be down on the south coast, but the west coast should gradually clean up as the onshore wind falls light through Wednesday. However, at the same time, the waves will shrink in size, starting the day at 4 feet then finish up at about 2 feet. Tuesday’s high tide will be very messy along the west coast in the morning (9.6m at 7:30pm), then the subsequent highs will all have slightly less impact than the one before (8pm Tuesday, 8:10am Wednesday and finally 8:40pm Wednesday).
Thursday and Friday
Weather
After a very cold Wednesday night (probably with ground frost), Thursday will become almost as soggy as Monday, but the rain probably won’t last as long, because there will be a strong force 6-7 SW’ly wind to keep shoving it eastwards. By Friday, the wind (still strong) will have swung around to a WNW’ly direction and this will bring an alternating sequence of sunshine, showers and rainbows. The temperature sequence will be something like this… peaking at 11°C on Thursday, dropping to 7 or 8°C overnight, then peaking at 10°C on Friday and staying around that figure overnight into Saturday.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be small but pretty clean on Thursday, most likely starting the day at 1-2 feet then finishing up at around 3 feet. Friday will then be a huge frothy mess, as the waves are expected to become a very choppy 8-10 feet. Meanwhile the tidal range will continue to shrink very slowly (with a breakfast time high of 9.4m on Thursday and a mid-morning high of just 9m on Friday) but it will continue to have some impact along the west-coast roads, due to the building swell and to the changes in the wind.
The Weekend
Weather
When the forecast is unsettled like this then a lot can change in a week, but the current expectation for the weekend is to re-run the sequence of Thursday and Friday. The wind details, precipitation timings and the resultant temperatures all look virtually the same, so I shall simply refer you back to that paragraph, but you can replace the word ‘Thursday’ with ‘Saturday’ and you can replace the word ‘Friday’ with ‘Sunday’.
Surf and the Water
Very big surf throughout. Pretty clean on Saturday but hideously messy on Sunday. Fortunately now, with all tidal highs well below 9m, the west-coast roads will not be impacted.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday…
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