Thursday
Weather
In recent weeks, we have mostly bathed in mild air of Azorean origin (albeit with some pretty horrible weather at times), then on Tuesday afternoon we switched to a flow of Arctic air, and the temperatures plummeted accordingly. The lowest temperature of all will be around dawn on Thursday (about 3-4°C in the air and sub-zero on the ground). It’s been a very short-lived cold-snap though, because, through the following 12hrs, the temperature will simply keep rising, until we reach a max of 10°C at about 11pm (when most of us have gone to bed). As for the weather sequence… hazy sunshine gradually turning dull and overcast through the morning, then turning wet and really windy in the afternoon (force 6 SSW’ly), before that rain turns showery in the late evening and the wind veers to a gusty W’ly.
Surf and the Water
A great wind direction for surfing, but the waves will be very small I’m afraid, just 1-2 feet during the morning when the weather and the tide are at their best, then gradually picking up to 3-4 feet by dusk, whilst the tide and weather become less and less favourable. High water will be 9.3m at 9am (probably the best time for sea-swimming on the north and west coasts) and low water will be 1.3m at 3:30pm.
Friday
Weather
The strong force 6 and very gusty WNW’ly wind will continue to blow showers across the area, through the entire day and through much of the night. Not all of the showers will hit us, but some of them certainly will, and they will probably be heavy, with hail and perhaps even with thunder. In between the showers, there will be some sunny spells and a few brief rainbows, with temperatures hovering around 8°C, but the wind making it feel colder than that.
Surf and the Water
A whopping great swell will whomp onto all coasts except the east. The west coast will obviously get the biggest waves but they will be such a horrible mess that I doubt anybody will be tempted except perhaps for some well ‘ard windsurfers. The only hope of a cleanish wave for surfing might be at Petit Bot, but even that will be pretty savage. Petit Port won’t be quite so clean but it could be a pretty good option because it’s not so much of a rock slalom. As for the swimmers… Fermain is the best option by far. High water will be about 9m just before 10am. Not the biggest tide of the week, but it might see the biggest splashes along the west coast, due to the power of the swell.
The Weekend
Weather
Two distinct halves to this weekend... I guess Saturday is the day for indoor activity and Sunday is the day to get out and about. The common thread between the two days will be the temperature (only fluctuating between 9 and 11°C throughout), but Saturday will be very wet and very windy (10-15mm of rain with a howling force 7 WSW’ly), then Sunday will be dry bright and relatively calm (just a force 4 WNW’ly).
Surf and the Water
Saturday will still have the majority of that massive Friday swell (10+ feet), so there could be some half-decent waves to surf on the north coast. However, it’s all going to be a bit choppy due to the strength of the cross-offshore wind. Sunday’s winds will be onshore but they could be light enough for the 6-8 foot waves to clean up a bit in the late afternoon. The tides will be high at 10:30am on Saturday and 11:10am on Sunday (8.5m and 7.9m respectively). Low tides shortly after dusk.
Next Week
Weather
Apart from some patchy drizzle on Monday and a brief spell of rain on Tuesday morning, it looks as though we are in for dry and increasingly sunny week. This is all due to the development of a high-pressure system over southwest Britain. Through Monday and Tuesday morning, we will have a moderate, mild and moist SW’ly breeze. Then, as the high starts to develop to the west of us, we will have a moderate NW’ly. Moving on to the second half of the week, as the high moves much closer to the Channel Islands, the winds will veer NE’ly and they will fall lighter and lighter. Therefore, to summarise Wednesday, Thursday and Friday… blissfully sunny by day (max temps around 8-9°C), starlit and increasingly moonlit by night (min temps 3-4°C with ground frost).
Surf and the Water
We should have rideable surf all week, perhaps really clean from Wednesday onward (with waves still as big as 3-5 feet). As for the tides… just small movements all week, with highs around lunchtime at the start of the week, nudging forward to the late afternoon by the end of the week.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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