Monday and Tuesday
Weather
These two days are very uncertain with respect to the timing and the amount of drizzle/mist/hill-fog. The reason being that a warm front is just floating over the Channel Islands area, just nudging back and forth at the whim of the most minor fluctuations in air-pressure (high to the south and low to the north). What we can be very certain of is that the air will be mild (generally floating between 9 and 11°C throughout) and that the wind will be very light (force 2-3 and varying in direction, depending on the precise position of that weather-front. It won’t be mega-murky for the entire period; there are bound to be a few moments when the cloud lifts and thins and even lets a little brightness through, but it won’t be until the second half of the week that we are treated to the proper sunshine.
Surf and the Water
Solid, clean surf (4-6 feet along the west coast). Great swimming conditions for the winter-dippers too (on all coasts, working around the tides, but mainly along the east coast to totally avoid the swell). The tidal movements will only be small though, with highs at midday on Monday and 1pm on Tuesday.
Wednesday
Weather
This day is sandwiched between the murky first half of the week and the glorious second half, so it will possibly take a little time for the cloud to clear, meaning that you might be travelling to work/school under grey skies but probably returning home under blue. The breeze will still be light (force 2-3) but it should establish a very definite ENE’ly direction by the end of the day, which will initiate a cooler airflow. The max for the day should be 9-10°C but then the overnight min will be noticeably lower, probably dipping to 5 or 6°C, with a slim chance of a ground-frost developing.
Surf and the Water
Clean west-coast waves again (probably 5 feet at first, then 4 feet later). The best locations for swimming will probably be along the south coast, or in the northern corners of the west coast bays. Miniscule tidal movements, with a low of 3.8m at 8:10am and a high of just 6.8m at 2pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Gorgeous winter sunshine with sparkling visibility. Some beautiful moonlit nights too. The breeze will be E’ly force 2-3 through Thursday, veering SE’ly on Friday. This means that we will gradually lose the mildness of the sea-air, as it is replaced by a colder continental feed. Daily maxima should be 9°C and 8°C respectively. Nightly minima should be about 4°C, meaning that a patchy ground-frost is very likely.
Surf and the Water
Pristine west-coast waves again, becoming much more manageable for intermediate surfers… 3-4 feet on Thursday, then 2-3 feet on Friday. West will be best for swimmers too, especially around the times of high water… 3:20pm on Thursday and 4:20pm on Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
Most likely staying fine, dry and calm, although with very little certainty about the wind direction it’s difficult to estimate whether the temperatures will continue to fall or if they will make a recovery. There is a slim chance (according to the American GFS model) that a low pressure system will develop in the North Sea, which would give us a stronger N’ly airflow, with showers of hail or sleet. However, at the moment, I don’t think this outcome is very likely. We will just have to watch this space…
Surf and the Water
As described in the ‘Weather’ paragraph, I think it is most likely that the winds will stay very light as we continue to enjoy settled conditions. If this is the case then we will be in for another couple of days of clean west-coast waves, most likely in the 2-3 foot range. The tidal range will be medium-sized and the lows will be in the late mornings and the highs will be just after dusk.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway