Wednesday
Weather
Ooft what a rough old ride we are having this week. Wednesday even windier than Tuesday was, with the winds now blowing force 6-7 WSW’ly all day, possibly just slipping up to gale force 8 towards dusk. The seas responding accordingly, becoming very rough and no doubt throwing lots of spray across the west coast roads around the times of those high tides (early morning and early evening). There will be much less rain than on Tuesday though, with only occasional bouts of mist and drizzle, probably not enough to make any fresh puddles. On a positive note, the air is going to be very mild, with a max temp of 12°C which will actually feel really pleasant in the extreme shelter of Fermain and a few parts of Town.
Surf and the Water
Maybe the most hardcore windsurfers will be tempted by these conditions, but they will be pretty ugly and off-putting to surfers and most other water-users. If any surfers do fancy a bash at it then they will find choppy 6-10 foot waves out west and slightly less choppy 2-4 foot waves up north. As for our winter sea-swimmers, then the only places I can really recommend would be Fermain or Pembroke (right up close to the wall). High water will be roughly 8.7m at 6:30am and at 7pm (pretty splashy out west).
Thursday
Weather
The cloud will have cleared nicely overnight, to reveal bright moonlight before dawn and then some decent sunny spells after. That sunshine will become increasingly hazy through the afternoon, as the high cloud starts to thicken. However, it probably won’t be until dusk that the first showers start to threaten, and then the overnight period when some more prolonged rain sets in. The winds on Thursday, far from calm but pleasantly lighter than the previous days, with a force 4-5 W’ly in the morning, backing SW’ly in the afternoon, before ramping up to a force 6-7 S’ly during the night.
Surf and the Water
Tuesday’s surf will be 4-6 feet and fairly clean, then Wednesday’s will be 6-8 feet and fairly choppy… on the west coast that is… you can always try the north coast on the off chance of something much smaller but cleaner. Once again, there will be plenty of action for windsurfers and kitesurfers (not for beginners though), and the swimmers will need to head for the maximum shelter of eastern Bays like Fermain. The tides will be getting springy, with highs of 8.2m around dawn and dusk on Tuesday, and 8.7m around the same time on Wednesday.
Friday and the Weekend
Weather
Friday will kick off with a gale force 8 SW’ly wind, driving some heavy showers through the islands. These will clear to sunny spells pretty soon, but we will probably see another line of showers blast through at midday, when the gale veers to a W’ly direction. During the night-time the wind will simmer down to force 6 for a while, still bringing the odd shower to interrupt the moonlight. Then Saturday and Sunday are both looking a bit more cloudy and grey, with occasional rain or drizzle but none of it particularly dramatic. Once again, it will be the wind that really steals the show… strong force 7 WSW’ly on Saturday, possibly cranking up to gale force 8 again on Sunday. Mild throughout, with 10-11°C maxima and mins of 7-8°C on Friday night and 8-9°C on the other nights.
Surf and the Water
Massive seas throughout, particularly huge on Friday. West coast residents will feel a lot of spray on their windows around the times of high tide (general around 9.3m at breakfast time and around 9.1m in the mid-evenings). Take great care, if you are going surfing or wind-surfing. It’s definitely looking like a time for experts only, but even they might prefer to stay warm and dry. If there’s one window of more manageable conditions then it’s probably going to be on Saturday morning. As for our dedicated sea-swimmers, it’s another case of thank goodness for Fermain.
Next Week
Weather
Monday should be dry and bright but somewhat spoilt by a very strong and gusty WNW’ly wind (probably force 7 in the morning, dropping off to force 6 in the afternoon. Tuesday looks likely to be wet in the morning and then sunny in the afternoon, with the wind gradually easing to force 4-5. Then the rest of the week will be is looking like a more moderate shade of unsettled; the wind generally SW’ly or W’ly and varying between light force 3 and fresh force 5; the skies mostly cloudy but dry, but that cloud occasionally thinning to allow some brightness and occasionally thickening to produce a little rain.
Surf and the Water
The sea state will be massive on Monday but it will gradually moderate through the rest of the week. At the same time, the tides will steadily reduce from springs to neaps. If there is one day for surfers to really seize upon, for its relative calmness and cleanliness, then it is probably going to be Wednesday.
The next forecast update will be on Friday…
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