Saturday
Weather
Maybe one last shower around dawn but probably dry and bright until rain arrives towards midday. That rain will persist until mid-afternoon, with the odd heavy burst at times. Then, towards dusk, it will be back to sunny spells and the chance of a shower. Whilst all that is happening, I’m afraid it’s going to be windy again. Not quite the ferocity of Storm Eunice, but fairly close around lunchtime, when the force 6-7 SW’ly will increase to gale force 8 for an hour or two. (Max 10°C, min 8°C).
Surf and the Water
Much cleaner surf during the morning and lunchtime, but it will still be pretty massive, so best to leave it alone if you aren’t very experienced (8-10 feet on the west coast, 3-5 feet on the north). Swimmers will generally find the east coast to be most sheltered, especially down at Fermain. High water will be roughly 9.2m at 8:17am. Low water will be at 2:41pm.
Sunday
Weather
Cloudy but dry for the most part. However, there will be the odd time when the cloud thins and the sky brightens. Then, as we approach dusk, a band of rain will march in from the northwest and that will stick around for a few hours, before it clears to moonlight and occasional squally showers. As for the wind, I’m afraid it’s yet another howler of a day. Much like on Saturday, the WSW’ly wind will be force 6 to 7 for the most part, but it will increase to gale force 8, but this time it will be in the evening. Furthermore, it will maintain or perhaps even gain strength later in the night, as it veers to a WNW’ly direction. (Max 11°C, min 7°C).
Surf and the Water
Very big and messy waves, probably best left to expert wind-surfers. The sea swimming conditions will be as smooth as ever, round at Fermain though, especially if you go around high tide (9.1m at 8:51am).
Monday
Weather
Although mostly sunny on Monday, it is going to be another wind-blast of a day, with a gale force WNW’ly through the morning, just easing gradually through the afternoon to strong force 6 to 7. The only real chance of showers is first thing in the morning (quite heavy and squally) and last thing at night (quite gentle and drizzly). Despite the sunshine, it’s going to be a cold feeling day, with the wind-chill making the 10°C max feel more like 4 or 5°C. When things calm down overnight, the thickening cloud will keep things relatively mild and we shouldn’t see temperatures fall any lower than 8 or 9°C.
Surf and the Water
A crazy huge cauldron of a sea, all around the island except for the extremely sheltered eastern bays. It will be pretty much as rough as it was through storm Eunice, so I can’t really suggest any activities, except for heading to Fermain, if you’re a hardcore daily dipper.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
The general pattern of high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north will shift a little bit northwards, putting us more under the influence of the settled French weather, that the wild British weather. Furthermore, the pressure difference across this region will just relax a little, so the wind won’t be nearly as strong through Tuesday and Wednesday… Tuesday’s W’ly might briefly touch force 6 around lunchtime, as a soggy weather front moves through and clears away the morning murk. The wind through the rest of the day should just be force 4-5. Then through Wednesday, the wind will just be force 3-4, with mostly cloudy but dry conditions. After that, it will be a bit up and down, with Thursday brining frequent showers and a strong force 6 W’ly wind, but Friday probably relaxing just like Wednesday. The timing of all these details are very uncertain, so be prepared for them to change a bit, but I am confident of this general moderating trend as we progress through the week.
Surf and the Water
The sea state will be much less crazy than on Monday, but the waves will still be big on the west coast, even during the calmer days. There should definitely be the odd moment for surfers to seize upon, especially on Wednesday, but with a solid 6-foot swell it still won’t be suitable for the inexperienced. As the week progresses, the tides will steadily reduce from springs to neaps, with the highs shifting from mid-morning on Monday to lunchtime by Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
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