Monday
Weather
The only threat of showers is in the northern half of the Channel, leaving us to enjoy dry and partly sunny conditions through daylight hours, followed by starry skies overnight. The cold ESE’ly wind will certainly make you want to wear a jacket, collar up high, probably with hat and gloves on too. However, it’s also going to be fantastic for line-drying a couple of laundry loads. Max temp (very late in the day) around 6-8°C but the force 4-5 wind making it feel like it’s only 1-3°C, brrrrr.
Surf and the Water
The cross-shore wind has rather spoilt the west-coast through the weekend, but it will now be beautifully offshore, making for super-clean 2-3 foot waves in the morning, dropping off to 1-2 feet in the afternoon (when the tide will probably be too low anyway). Swimmers will also favour the west coast during the morning for shelter, when the tide is close to the sea walls. High water will be 8.9m at 9:24am. Low water will be at 3:18pm.
Tuesday
Weather
A warming trend will have already begun on Monday, with the evening and night already being about 1-2°C up on the previous. As we go through Tuesday, the fresh force 5 wind will still feel quite chilly, but because it will be blowing from a SSE’ly direction, it will pull in air from much milder latitudes, lifting the mercury to a more healthy 10 or 11°C by late afternoon. Dry and probably sunny at times in the morning, then much cloudier in the afternoon, with a few showers likely by dusk.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be gorgeously clean again, but it is going to be teeny weeny… 1 foot for the most part, with only a few bonus 2-footers here and there. The west coast will also be great for our sea-swimmers, as will the north coast. High water will be 8.2m at 9:52am. Low water will at 4:10pm.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
These days will be dominated by a strong S’ly airflow, meaning that the air will be mild throughout, temperatures climbing to 12°C or maybe even 13°C each day. The weather will be rather unsettled though, with several weather fronts either steaming through the islands, or just giving us a passing blow as they focus the bulk of their energy on Brittany and Cornwall. The wettest times for us are likely to be Wednesday night and Friday night, but these details are uncertain and quite likely to change from update to update.
Surf and the Water
More pristine clean surf, and the great news is that it will be getting bigger day by day, increasing from 3-4 feet on Wednesday to 6+ feet by the end of Friday. The windsurfing conditions will also be good. As for the swimming conditions, you will really want to go for the high tide, when the sea walls will offer a little bit of shelter from the fresh to strong winds. Those high tides will be in the late mornings… 7.6m on Wednesday, 6.9m on Thursday and 6.4m on Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
The airflow will remain S’ly but likely strengthen to near gale force, as a succession of deep low pressure systems develop in the Bay of Biscay and swing northwards into Western Britain. Timing is very uncertain but I think we can be pretty sure of one or two bouts of rain, or at least a scattering of heavy showers. However, like the previous days, it will be far from cold, with temperatures peaking around 12°C by day and only falling to about 9°C by night.
Surf and the Water
Really big surf on Saturday (maybe head to the north coast for something more manageable). Then, on Sunday, the waves will probably be a tad smaller, but still very impressive. Both days clean and shapely, and good for windsurfers too. The tidal range will remain tiny on both days, with just the hint of a high in the early afternoon.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway