Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Albeit a bit cloudier than Sunday, Monday should be dry, just as mild (14°C) and the SE’ly breeze will be quite a bit lighter than Sunday’s NE’ly (force 2-3). Overnight into Tuesday, some thundery showers will push northwards across the Channel, possibly missing us altogether, possibly lightly scuffing us or possibly hitting us directly with a good old downpour. Tuesday will then have further cloudy skies and light winds. As for the showers, this time it’s much more certain that they will hit us from time to time, but they will be much lighter and there won’t be any threat of thunder. Max temp for Tuesday just 12°C.
Surf and the Water
The west coast surf will be 1-2 feet, probably best on Monday, although only really of interest to longboarders and SUP riders. The west coast will also be best for swimming, especially on Monday when it will be warmest. Monday’s low water will be 2.8m at 11am and high water will be 7.4m at 5:06pm. Tuesday’s tidal movements will be a bit larger and about an hour later.
Wednesday and Thursday
Weather
Tuesday’s light showers might just linger into Wednesday morning, but we are probably just talking about dry weather and partly cloudy skies until a more coherent band of heavier rain pushes in from the west on Thursday afternoon. You might have thought that the big change had already come, from all that fantastic March sunshine. However, it this weather-system that will really herald the most noticeable change. That’s because it’s going to draw such cold air down from the north, that Exmoor and Dartmoor will be covered in snow by the end of Thursday night. For the Channel Islands, it will just be rain but the temperature plummet will feel particularly bitter… Wednesday 10-11°C for the daytime max then 7-8°C for the overnight min, Thursday 9-10°C for the daytime max and then just 4-5°C for the overnight min.
Surf and the Water
The tidal movements will be getting larger, with highs of 8.7m on Wednesday and 9.2m on Thursday (breakfast time and dinner time). The west-coast waves will be flat for the most part, picking up to 2 feet on Thursday afternoon, but that time is really going to be much better for windsurfing than for surfing. The south coast will offer the most sheltered swimming locations and the lunchtime lows will be fairly extreme, meaning that there will be lots of Sand down at Petit Port and at Jaonnet Bay.
Friday and the Weekend
Weather
With frigid Arctic air over the islands (single-figure max temps and overnight ground-frosts), the visibility will be sparkling, and the sunny intervals will be super-bright. However, the beauty will be punctuated by blustery showers of rain, hail and perhaps some sleet. A far cry from the weekend before it, but current expectations are that the cold snap will be a brief 4-6 day blip, rather than the flavour of April.
Surf and the Water
Tiny surf for the most part I’m afraid, apart from Friday’s 2-4 foot choppy slop. Windsurfing conditions should still be good on Friday, but it will probably only be the cold-water swimmers who have any interest in the water over the weekend (once again, the south coast will be the venue of choice for them).
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
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