Thursday
Weather
Timing and positioning has changed a little since the last update. The weather system that is introducing such cold air to the area, has shifted a little further to the east. This means that we aren’t going to get persistent rain in the afternoon any more, but actually in the morning (probably all clear by 11am). The other differences are that eastern France will really be the focus for the snow, rather than southern England (great news for anybody who’s planning a late season ski trip). Here in Guernsey, the rest of the day will be a story of sunny spells and isolated showers. The wind will be a fresh force 5 NNE’ly, which will make the 7°C air feel even colder than that. Furthermore, the showers will likely have hail or sleet mixed in with them, so the final day of March is really going to feel very wintry compared to the rest of the month.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be virtually flat but the north-coast surf will probably be 2 feet and choppy if you are really desperate (not likely after such a top quality month). The main event will be the windsurfing and kite-surfing. Second to that will be a high-tide swim on the sheltered south coast. Low water will be at lunchtime and high water will be about 9.2m at roughly 7am and 7:30pm.
Friday
Weather
Much like Thursday afternoon, there will be a rash of heavy showers over the Channel, powered by the heat of the sea water, relative to the arctic air above it. The showers are highly likely to have hail or sleet included and they will be fairly frequent. That said, they will whistle through quite quickly, because the N’ly wind will continue to be fresh force 5 and gusty. Skies should be sunny in between the showers, but I doubt you will want to take your hats and gloves off, given that the top temperature will only be 8°C and exposed areas will feel more like 3°C due to the wind-chill.
Surf and the Water
Another day for south-coast swimming or west-coast wind-surfing. The tide will be low at lunchtime again and the highs will be 9.5m at roughly 7:40am then 9.4m at roughly 8pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Sunny skies but cold air and just the slimmest risk of a brief shower. The showers will still be on the heavy side, probably with some hail mixed in, but they will be so sparsely scattered that they are far more likely to miss us than to hit us, meaning that it’s actually going to be quite a lovely weekend. The max temps will only be a miserly 8-9°C on Saturday then 9-10°C on Sunday, but both days will feel far more pleasant than the previous couple of days, due to the wind being so much lighter (light force 3 NNE’ly on Saturday, then force 2 NNW’ly on Sunday).
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 1 foot waves on the west coast. Super-keen kids might be able to pull a decent surf session out of the weekend (most likely on Sunday afternoon, when there is a slim chance of the odd 2-footer rolling in). Apart from that, the prime activities will be swimming or paddle-boarding around the various south-coast bays. Big tidal movements, with lows in the early afternoons and highs of roughly 9.5m around breakfast-time and shortly after dusk.
Next Week
Weather
Force 4-5 W’ly winds for the majority of the week, likely backing SW’ly and increasing strong force 6 on Thursday and Friday. The latter part of the week is not only likely to be the windiest but also the wettest, with showers becoming more frequent and perhaps merging into longer spells of rain. The temperature trend will be upward though, with the daily maxima likely to be 11°C Monday to Wednesday, then 12-13°C Thursday and Friday.
Surf and the Water
The east coast will be the place for swimmers to go every day. Over on the west coast, the windsurfing and kite-surfing will be good. As for the surf, probably 2-3 feet and choppy Monday to Wednesday, picking up to 4-6 feet and becoming slightly cleaner on Thursday and Friday. Tides gradually shrinking… 9.2m for Monday’s breakfast-time high, dropping to just 7m for Friday’s lunchtime high.
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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