Thursday
Weather
Some heavy rain around dawn, but that will soon clear through, as the strong force 6-7 WSW’ly wind veers to fresh force 5 WNW’ly. After that, there could be another shower or two through the morning, but there will also be a couple of bright interludes. Moving into the afternoon, the sun should blaze a bit more thoroughly for a time, before skies turn cloudy in the evening and then heavy rain returns around midnight. Max temp 11°C in most areas but 12°C in Town. Min temp around 5°C late in the night.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be messy all day, but it will be big (6-8 feet), so the more hardcore surfers might still enjoy humping some lumps at the likes of Vazon and Portinfer. Swimmers will definitely prefer to stay to the east, especially around Fermain. High water will be 7.8m at 10:47am and low water will be 3.3m at 4:55pm.
Friday
Weather
A nasty little low-pressure system will sweep through the Channel during the morning. The wind will go right around the clock… force 4-5 E’ly before dawn (whilst the rain is persistent and heavy), strong force 6-7 NE’ly through the rest of the morning (whilst the rain remains persistent and heavy, possibly with a bit of hail mixed in), then force 4-5 NW’ly in the afternoon and W’ly in the evening (whilst the skies are mostly clear except for a few passing showers). As for the temperature, there’s going to be some pretty cold air dragged over the islands, so most of the day will only be 5-6°C with the wind-chill making it feel significantly colder than that. It won’t be until the evening that we hit our measly max of just 8-9°C.
Surf and the Water
During the early morning, the west-coast surf won’t be nearly as hideous as the weather, as we will have super-clean 4-5 foot waves (but the strength and temperature of the offshore wind will certainly be difficult to manage). Later in the day, the waves will be a total mess, unless there’s a little something down on the south coast (could be worth a look). High water will be 7.2m at 11:20am and low water will be 3.8m at 5:26pm.
The Weekend
Weather
It’s still looking good for that well-timed oasis of finer weather this weekend. The computer models have told quite a consistent story about what will follow the dramas of Friday… for Saturday it’s a mostly sunny day with an ever-decreasing NW’ly breeze (max temp around 10-11°C), then for Sunday it’s a much cloudier day but with warmer air blowing in on a moderate SE’ly breeze (max temp around 14°C).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will probably be 3-4 feet and rather choppy on Saturday morning, then increasingly clean on Saturday afternoon, then super-clean throughout Sunday but dropping off to just 2-3 feet. Tiny tidal movements making it even more perfect, with lunchtime highs of just 6.5m on Saturday and just 6m on Sunday.
Next Week
Weather
At least it will be a relatively warm week, as the wind will be generally SE’ly every day (sometimes more of a due S’ly, sometimes more of a due E’ly). None of that nasty N’ly nippiness though. For the vast majority of the time will be dry, but there will be the odd wave of showers pushing northwards from France and Biscay. They could be heavy and possibly thundery, but it’s also likely that most of them will miss us and just cruise by on the horizon. Daily max temps should be in the mid-teens in the first half of the week and most likely the low teens for the second half. Overnight min temps should be in the high single-figures, so there’s currently no expectation of any ground frost.
Surf and the Water
The wind direction is looking fantastic for the west-coast surf every day. However, the waves will vary in size, with some days in the 4-6 foot range (most likely in the first half of the week) and some days in the 1-3 foot range (most likely in the second half). Swimming conditions will generally be best along the west coast too, but sometimes good on the north coast too. Tiny tidal movements at the start of the week, gradually picking up to medium-large by the end of the week.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
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Swim Conditions
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