Thursday
Weather
It’s another tricky day to forecast the temperature, because various computer models are suggesting that there will be a lot of sea fog in the Channel, affecting the islands for large portions of the day. This is very uncertain though, because the models only have to be about half a degree out, with either the dewpoint of the air or the temperature of the sea, and that could lead to much less fog than expected. If there is no fog then we should see a similar day to Wednesday (mixed cloud and sunshine, with barely a breath of wind) and a max temp of around 17°C. If however, the fog is extensive and prolonged, then the temperature will be 3-4°C lower than that and it will obviously be very dull and drab in comparison. My gut feeling is an optimistic one. Wednesday turned out better than the models predicted, and I think Thursday is likely to be similar.
Surf and the Water.
Those gorgeous twinkly waves of Wednesday will be somewhat repeated today, but they will be about a foot smaller and the tidal range will be a bit bigger… low water will be around midday, high water will be around 6am and 6pm, roughly 7.9 and 8.2m respectively.
Good Friday
Weather
With very similar conditions to the previous days, there is still uncertainty about whether it will be foggy at times. However, assuming that we continue on this run of good fortune and escape without any fog, then the skies will probably be a bit cloudier than the previous two days, due to an old decaying weather front that will slide over us from the west. Once upon a time, that was a rainy feature, but by the time it reaches us, it will be so weak that it only brings a bit of cloud. As such, the temperature is likely to be a little lower, so it will probably peak at 14-15°C. The wind still barely noticeable, this time breathing gently from a N’y direction, making the south coast particularly lovely, especially during the lunchtime low-tide.
Surf and the Water
A fresh new swell will pump in through the day, increasing the wave heights from 1-2 feet in the morning to 4-5 feet by dusk. The sea swimming will be particularly lovely on the south coast. Head down for the lunchtime low, if you like lots of sand and a bit of extra heat. Best jump in at dinner time if you like to take the plunge straight off the rocks. High water will be about 8.5m around 6:30am, then roughly 8.8m at 7pm.
Easter Weekend
Weather
Spring can be like winter in some years and like summer in others, but this year’s mid-spring bank holiday weekend is set to be slap bang in the middle. Nothing special but certainly good for plenty of outdoor activity. Saturday and Sunday, look set to be rather cloudy, with comfortably light S’ly breezes. It should stay dry except perhaps for some patchy light rain later on Sunday (when the wind might also spruce up to a moderate W’ly for a time). Monday looks much sunnier, with the wind staying W’ly but falling really light again. Just the slim chance of catching a wandering shower on Monday, but they will be sparsely scattered, so there’s a much greater chance of staying dry. Daily max temps will probably be around 14°C, but we could get up to 15 if we luck into a bit more sunshine than expected.
Surf and the Water
The Easter surf will be pretty classic, hopefully better than the Bells contest on the internet (you can watch that after sunset for inspiration). 4 feet and clean for the most part, maybe 5 feet on Easter Sunday itself. Once again, light winds will mean that the swimming conditions are pretty good everywhere, but probably best along the south coast Saturday and Sunday, then on the north and west coasts on BH Monday. Big tides, lows at lunchtime, highs around breakfast and dinner time… roughly 9.1m on Saturday, then 9.5m on Sunday and Monday.
Next Week
Weather
A little bit of everything… sunny days, cloudy days, the odd shower and one or two longer spells of rain. Temperature wise, the week is looking right about average, with daily maxima in the mid-teens and nightly minima in the high single figures (no sign of any further frosts). Winds will be mostly light, occasionally moderate, generally coming from the north, occasionally coming from the west.
Surf and the Water
The tidal range will gradually shrink through the week, coming down from highs of 9.5m on Tuesday, to highs of 7.8m on Friday. Another full week of surf… cleanish conditions (light onshores) pretty much every day, mostly around 4 feet, but maybe 5-6 feet on Tuesday and Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway