Thursday and Friday
Weather
Well we’ve still had less than 10mm of rainfall over the last 30 days, so the gardens and fields are still pretty thirsty, but Wednesday afternoon’s little top up was still better than nothing. It’s back to the dry and largely sunny for Thursday and Friday. Thursday morning will probably be the cloudiest portion of these two days, but even that will be interspersed by sunny spells. After that, we are looking at pretty much cloudless skies through Thursday afternoon and night. Friday’s sunshine will then be a little more hazy, due to some thin and wispy high cloud, but we are basically talking about a straight-forward gorgeous day. Winds W’ly light force 3. Max temps 16°C and 17°C respectively. Min temps 9°C on both nights.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be reasonably clean because the onshore wind will only be light… 4 feet on Thursday then 2 feet on Friday (both days maybe a little bit bigger around dawn). Low tides will be in the late mornings and high tides in the late afternoons (7.6m and 8.1m respectively). The east coast will have the smoothest water for swimmers and paddle-boarders, especially down at Fermain and up at Bordeaux.
The Weekend
Weather
It’s still expected to be very warm, but I don’t think we are talking about pure sunshine any more. Now that the breeze is expected to be NE’ly on Saturday and E’ly on Sunday (rather than N’ly as previously expected), there is expected to be sufficient heat over nearby France to cook up some fairly large scale thunderstorms. The first of these are expected to cross the Channel northwards on Saturday evening, then there will be further waves following a similar track through the night and at times on Sunday. It’s always hit and miss, whether such thunderstorms will hit the islands or pass by to the east or west. However, there is a chance of between 2mm and 10mm of rain on both days. Whatever the result, after a very sunny morning, it is bound to become quite cloudy by mid-afternoon Saturday, and then we will only see intermittent sunshine through Sunday. The air will still be very warm though… Saturday max 17°C, overnight min 12°C, Sunday max 19°C, overnight min 13°C.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will probably be 2 feet and clean and the conditions will also be great for swimming, kayaking and paddle-boarding on both days. Bigger tides again, with highs soon after dawn and then again around dinner time (roughly 8.4m on Saturday and roughly 8.9m on Sunday).
Next Week
Weather
The most certain element of the forecast is the temperature… with a light SE’ly or S’ly airflow every day until at least Thursday, we can expect to reach 20°C or higher every day. Most days will be partly, if not mostly, sunny. There will however be further thunderstorms brewing over France and wandering northwards, so there will be further opportunities to capture some significant rainfall. The timings are very uncertain at this stage, but in these types of situation, the highest chance of a thorough soaking is nearly always during the evening or later in the night.
Surf and the Water
The sea temperature is bound to start nudging further into the teens with this succession of warm days, so the swimming should be lovely, especially in the late afternoon/early evenings when the tide has pushed in over warm sand. As for the surf, we have the dream weather chart, with low pressure hovering to the west and high pressure to the east, we should see super-clean waves every day, ranging from 2 feet on the smallest occasions (Monday), to as much as 6 feet on the biggest occasions (Tuesday evening through to Wednesday evening).
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway