Monday to Wednesday
Weather
Three days that share the over-riding themes… very warm, mixed cloud and sunshine, high chance of some thundery downpours. However, with so much uncertainty in the precise timings of events, there is little value in describing each day separately. Just like on Sunday, whether or not the thundery showers hit the islands or pass to the east or west, there will be quite a lot of cloud development surrounding them; and this cloud cover will tend to keep max temps around 20-21°C, rather than the 23-24°C that would be quite achievable in this tropical airflow given a greater quantity of sunshine. If there is one day that the sun is likely to shine like crazy then it currently looks most likely to be Tuesday, so be prepared for that one to be the warmest day of the year so far. Winds will generally be light force 3 S’ly or SE’ly, so the north and west coasts will tend to be the warmest places (don’t forget your sun-cream at water).
Surf and the Water
The surf will be very small on Monday (1 foot at best), gradually picking up to around 4 feet by the end of Tuesday and then 5-6 feet through Wednesday. The tides will be big though, following the full-moon, so the morning and evening highs will be roughly 9.3m on Monday and 9.4m on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
With high pressure becoming centred over the mouth of Channel on Thursday, this should be the sunniest day of the week, but the breeze will veer to a very gentle NW’ly meaning that we will lose that feed of very warm French air and our max temperature will slip back to around 19°C in most parts (but probably still 20-21°C in Town). Friday then, with a shallow low forming over France, will revert to similar conditions to those of the first half of the week… cloudier, with a threat of wandering showers. However, that NW’ly breeze will strengthen to moderate force 4, and that will probably cap the temperature about a degree lower than on Thursday.
Surf and the Water
Lovely clean surf on Thursday, but much more choppy on Friday. Both days should be nice and rideable though (roughly 4 feet). If you are swimming or kayaking then you will find lovely conditions all around the island on Thursday, but you will probably want to head to the south and east coasts to find smooth water on Friday. A slightly smaller tidal range on these days, with mid-morning highs of roughly 9m and 8.5m respectively.
The Weekend
Weather
With that high pressure system becoming centred over Ireland, the wind will gradually veer to a NNE’ly direction, maintaining the less warm airflow that was ushered in through Thursday and Friday. It’s looking like a nice dry weekend though, with both days scooping a whopping share of sunshine, and the south coast really being the best place to enjoy it.
Surf and the Water
Staying choppy on the west coast for surfers, but staying lovely and smooth for swimmers along the south coast. The tidal range will be smaller again, with the highs towards midday now, roughly 8m and 7.5m respectively.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway