Thursday
Weather
A very tricky day to forecast, due to the very slow and erratic movement of an old weather front, coming up from Brittany. The rain on this front will be showery by nature, so it will come and go rather unpredictably, but it is likely to be heavy at times, with a slight chance of thunder. In between the showers, the increased humidity of the air will probably lead to some mist or fog on the coasts and hills. It may sound as though this doesn’t leave much room for sunshine, but we probably will get some of that too, especially very early and late in the day. So there we go, it’s a real mixed bag of weather, but I am confident about a couple of things… very light breezes, variable force 1-2 in the morning, becoming SW’ly force 3 in the afternoon, all resulting in an unremarkable but very comfortable max temp of 18-19°C.
Surf and the Water
Any rideable that might have been ruined by Wednesday’s wind, will now be much cleaner and therefore hopefully rideable. The most likely time to achieve a little surf will be early morning or perhaps at lunchtime, but no doubt you will need a pretty big board. Swimming conditions will be great all day, but especially during the morning and at lunchtime. Low water will be at 9:06am and high water will be at 3:10pm (7.3m).
Friday
Weather
A more straight forward day, with force 3-4 SW’ly winds, dry weather and partial sunshine until late afternoon. Then cloudy skies and the onset of rain in the evening, probably persisting until midnight or soon after. Max temperature 19°C in most places but likely 20°C in Town.
Surf and the Water
Clean but tiny surf again, maybe slightly bigger in the evening (2 foot max). Great swimming conditions on all coasts except the south, which will be a little too choppy. Low water will be at 10:07am and high water will be at 4:10pm (7.4m).
The Weekend
Weather
Force 3, occasionally 4, SSW’ly winds will bring sunshine and showers through the majority of the weekend. However, the showers will be very brief and few, compared to the much more abundant brightness or sunshine, especially on Sunday. Max temps won’t be anything to get excited about… 18°C in most places but likely 19°C in Town. However, this will be plenty warm enough for some decent summer activity or to enjoy any outdoor events that you have planned.
Surf and the Water
It still looks as though we are in for a rather sloppy but nonetheless more sizeable swell to build through the weekend. Saturday will probably be around 2-3 feet and Sunday around 3-4 feet… both days reasonably clean at Vazon. Swimmers will find the smoothest water on the north and east coasts. Low tides will be late mornings and high tides late afternoons… 7.6m and 7.9m respectively.
Next Week
Weather
Only the outside chance of a shower or two on Monday and Tuesday (mainly during the night time), otherwise sunny and settled, with light winds and a steady rise in temperatures. Max temps likely 18-19°C on Monday and Tuesday, working into the low twenties on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday is too far away to speak with any confidence. However, early indications suggest that a thundery low-pressure system will work its way from France to England, giving us a wet and windy end to an otherwise fine week. IT really is a long way off though, so that particular part of the story may change significantly (watch this space).
Surf and the Water
Looking like an ok week for surfers, with a weak but clean 2-3 foot swell for the first half of the week, possibly cranking up to 4-5 feet from Wednesday onward. Medium sized tides, with lows around lunchtime and highs generally between 8m and 8.5m in the early mornings and late evenings.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday morning…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway