Saturday
Weather
With Friday evening’s cold front bringing cooler air to the islands, we can only expect a max temp of 17-19°C. The morning’s wind is a little more brisk than previously expected… force 4-5 SSW’ly, but the afternoon’s will be noticeably lighter… force 3-4 WSW’ly. Separating these two winds (around lunchtime) will be a line of showers, fairly heavy but pretty brief. If you just pop inside to eat today, then you might avoid them altogether, allowing you to enjoy a partially sunny morning and a thoroughly sunny afternoon/evening.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 2-3 feet and reasonably clean (especially in the morning). As for the swimming conditions, they will be best up north in the morning and then out east in the afternoon/evening. The tides will be low at 11am and then high at 5pm (7.6m).
Sunday
Weather
No showers expected until night time, meaning that daylight hours will be sunny for the vast majority of the time. The wind following a similar sequence to Saturday… force 4 SSW’ly, easing to a force 3 SW’ly in the afternoon, then a force 2 W’ly in the evening. Temperatures still only peaking at 17-19°C.
Surf and the Water
Slightly bigger surf… 4-5 feet, with the cleanest moments tying in nicely with the tides (early morning best for wind direction and then in the evening when the wind will be lightest). Those tides will be high at 5:30am and 5:50pm (7.6m and 7.9m respectively). Swimming conditions will generally be best along the north and east coasts.
Next Week
Weather
The broad story for next week’s weather is the same from day to day. This, along with the finer details being rather uncertain, means that there is little value in trying to tell a precise story for each day individually. The Channel Islands will spend the entire week caught between a dry and sunny high-pressure system to the southeast of us, and a wetter/windier low pressure system to the northwest. This will lead SW’ly winds throughout, generally strongest in the mornings (force 4 or 5) and lightest in the afternoons (force 2 or 3). From time to time, the French high-pressure system will bulge further across the Channel and we might see an entirely dry day (Tuesday currently looks like a good candidate for this) and from time to time, the British low-pressure system will extend over us and the showers could be frustratingly frequent (Wednesday currently looks like a good candidate for that). As I said, however, those day-to day differences are very uncertain so it would be good to keep your plans fairly flexible. However, I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of the week will be dry and the temperatures should be a little higher than over the weekend, generally peaking between 19and 21°C (always warmest in Town).
Surf and the Water
A steady run of sloppy but mostly clean and very rideable surf (2-4 feet). Maybe a couple of moments when winds will be strong enough for the kites to come out. Plenty of moments when the winds will be light enough for the kayaks and paddle-boards to come out. Great swimming conditions every day, especially around high water (generally between 8m and 8.5m in the early mornings and late evenings), when the north and east coasts will be particularly smooth and perfect.
The next forecast update will be on Monday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway