Friday
Weather
A broadly similar day to Thursday, as we continue to sit in the relatively cool air. To be realistic, it isn’t cool in the grand scheme, it’s just a lovely summer’s day but with more ordinary max temperature (22-23°C), as opposed to the unusually hot weather that we had at the start of the week and that we expect to return over the weekend. Winds will be force 3–4 NNE’ly, meaning that the south coast beaches will be the most sheltered and therefore the warmest.
Surf and the Water
The Surf will be smaller than the previous days (just 1-2 feet and sloppy), But the push of the big tide, very early in the morning and late in the afternoon, might give the waves a little more oomph. The prime activities for the day will really be swimming, coasteering and paddle boarding down on the south coast beaches, especially early afternoon when the mega-low tide will expose vast areas of golden sand.
The Weekend
Weather
The weather will be dry and sunny and the force 3-4 wind will gradually veer… NE’ly on Saturday and then E’ly on Sunday. This will bring an increasing influence from the hot continent, both through the days and the nights, leading to heat that some people will celebrate but many people will find quite oppressive. The precise max temperatures are very difficult to pin down at the moment. Inland parts of northern France will be absolutely cooking, and will likely reach daily maxima of around 20° higher than the sea surface temperature. Therefore, tiny differences in the strength and direction of the wind could result In big differences in the temperature for Guernsey. Current expectations are for Saturday to peak between 26 and 28°C, then for Saturday night to fall to a minimum of 19-20°C. Sunday is there an expected to peak somewhere between 29 and 32°C, before falling to a very uncomfortable minimum of 21-22°C. Very important to stay hydrated, and to keep your houses cool (most easily done by keeping doors, windows, blinds and curtains closed for the vast majority of the time).
Surf and the Water
The water will be nice and smooth on the south coast on Saturday and on the west coast on Sunday, perfect for swimming and paddling to take the edge off the heat. Maybe a little surfable wave at times, but it would only be about 1 foot and weak so probably not worth the sweat and bother of carrying your board up and down the beach. Huge tide is continuing, with lows in the afternoon and with highs around breakfast time and soon after dusk.
Next Week
Weather
Monday’s sunshine is likely to lift temperatures at a couple of degrees higher than whatever we get on Sunday, so we are really into the realms of extreme (perhaps unprecedented) heat. Tuesday’s temperature could be just as high as Monday’s, or maybe a few degrees lower. It all depends what time the cloud will build from the west, possibly deliver a thundery shower and then veer the wind to a cooler W’ly direction. I think it’s safe to say that the morning will be hot, quite quickly returning the mercury to the 30°C level, but how much further it goes all depends on the timing of the breakdown… it could be anywhere from early afternoon to the middle of the night. Either way, the final three days of the week are likely to see daily maxima in the mid-20s, with a mixed bag of cloud and sunshine. There’s a chance of some mist and fog banks too, and maybe one or two thundery showers, The precise details are very uncertain, but suffice to say it will be much closer to what we would call normal for Guernsey in July.
Surf and the Water
The surf will only be 1-2 feet at the best of times, but for the rest of the time it will be flat. Sea temperatures will be high for sure, and winds will be mostly light, so the swimming conditions are bound to be lovely. Tides gradually shrinking, with highs in the middle part of the day. Those highs as small as 7m by Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway