Wednesday
Weather
A very similar day to Tuesday, with heavy thundery showers in the area but tending to dance around the islands rather than actually impact them. If there is going to be a good downpour, rather like the one around dawn on Tuesday, then it will most likely be around lunchtime. The rest of the day should be bright or sunny, but there will be an increasing N’ly wind, picking up from force 2 early morning to force 4 by late afternoon. This will moderate the temperature, meaning that 22°C is really as much as we can hope for in the warmest parts.
Surf and the Water
It’s a bit tenuous but wave models are suggesting a small wave for kids and longboarders in the morning. If this is the case then best to get on it as soon as poss, before the tide gets too high and before the cross-shore wind becomes strong enough to ruin it. As for the swimming… all areas will be good at first but it will become all about the south coast as the day progresses. High water will be 8.6m at roughly 11am. Low water will be at 5:20pm.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday might have a shower or two at breakfast time, but the rest of the day should be dry and bright, with a moderate NW’ly breeze and another max temp of 22°C. Friday will probably be just as warm in Town, but with a force 4 to 5 WSW’ly wind bringing quite a lot of low cloud and mist to western parts, it really won’t feel so great over there.
Surf and the Water
Certainly no surf to bother with until we get some onshore slop on Friday afternoon. As for the swimming conditions, they will be lovely on the south coast on Thursday and then on the east coast on Friday. High water will be 8m around 11:30am Thursday and then 7.4m around midday Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
Saturday will be much like Friday, with just the outside chance of a shower, but it will probably only be some cloudy spells and the moderate W’ly that gives anybody any reason to complain. Sunday looks more likely to have a definite wet spell. Nothing serious though, just a little drizzle and mist as the winds back to a SW’ly direction. Both days will be warmest in Town, with 22 or 23°C being the max temperature there.
Surf and the Water
The surf will never be more than 2 feet but it will at least be rideable… messy on Saturday but likely a bit cleaner on Sunday. Swimming conditions will be best along the east coast throughout, but the north and west coasts should also be quite good on Sunday. The tidal range will be tiny, with lows around breakfast time and late evening, and highs in the early afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
It looks as though we will maintain the SW’ly flow through the majority of next week, and this will bring increasingly warm air to the islands, daytime temperatures generally peaking in the low 20s in the first half of the week, when the wind is moderate and skies are cloudy and perhaps occasionally drizzly. Then we should slip firmly into the mid 20s or even the high 20s through the second half of the week, as high pressure builds over the area, wind falls very light and variable, with the weather becomes sunny and dry.
Surf and the Water
It looks as though we should maintain some small surf throughout the week (never less than 1 foot, never more than 3 feet). The first half of the week will most likely be choppy and sloppy, but the second half of the week looks likely to be both cleaner and stronger. Small tidal movements in the first half of the week, medium-large tidal movements in the second half.
The next forecast update will be on Friday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway