Guernsey Weather Fox

Sunday and Monday

Weather

These days have been bunched together because of their similarity. Both days will have a warm continental SE’ly airflow. Only light force 3, so feeling very comfortable and much more like summer than autumn. The only thing that will keep the temperature from really sky-rocketing is the cloud cover. On Sunday, we are only looking at thin cirrus cloud, but by that time we won’t have dragged in the really warm air yet, so the max temperature will only be 22-23°C. It’s on Monday when the temperature could climb right up into the high twenties, but it will probably stop at 25°C because the cloud will be much thicker on that day. That said, it is really going to feel lovely on the beaches and in the sea, and the really great thing about this time of year is that the UV index will only peak at 4 or 5, so it’s only really between 11am and 3pm that fair-skinned people will need any sun protection.

Surf and the Water

We will have a mix of swells, all coming from the west, but some of it will be the declining swell from ex-hurricane Danielle, some of it will be the first tiny pulses from hurricane Earl and some of it will be residual slop from the local W’ly winds of the last few days. All in all, this means that there will be a constant supply of 1-3 foot surf, most of it will be very week, but some of it might still pack a surprisingly powerful punch. It’s all going to be super clean on the west coast. Likewise, that’s the coast that will be most attractive for swimming, but do watch out for strong tidal currents because these will be some of the largest tidal movement of the year, with lows of 0.8m (mid-afternoons) and highs of between 9.6m and 10m (around breakfast time and shortly after dusk)

Tuesday and Wednesday

Weather

Whilst warm air will continue to pump into the area over these two days, we won’t see very much sunshine (just a few brief glimpses) and we will see some pretty heavy showers. The timing of those showers is a little uncertain at this early stage, but this is how it’s currently looking… just the odd shower through Tuesday daytime (coming from very high clouds so most of it evaporating before reaching the ground), then likely some thundery deluges through the late evening and overnight period, followed by a rather staggered clearance of more ordinary, lighter showers. As such, the most likely time to see any brighter skies will be quite early on Tuesday and quite late on Wednesday, so the max temps will probably be lower than on Monday, peaking at just 22-23°C. Whilst all that’s happening, the NE’ly wind will steadily perk up to moderate force 4, so the north and east coasts will probably feel coolest, whilst the sheltered south coast feels noticeably warmer.

Surf and the Water

The swell from hurricane Earl will really dominate the west coast surf. Being small but very strong, the beach breaks will tend to close out but some of the reef breaks could handle it very nicely (experts only). Furthermore, it might just wrap into the south coast bays to produce a few novelty nuggets. The tides, still pretty huge, but not quite so extreme… with mid-morning highs of 9.6m and 9.2m respectively, and mid-afternoon lows of 1m then 1.4m.

Thursday and Friday

Weather

The wind will stay NE’ly and this will start to draw in cooler air from Scandinavia (daily maxima of 22°C and 21°C respectively, nightly minima of 14°C then 13°C). However, that wind should ease off to light force 3, so it will feel lovely and comfortable, and the cloud and showers should be replaced by sunny days and starry nights.

Surf and the Water

The cross-shore wind might be light enough that the west-coast surf is fairly clean (1-2 feet, with the occasional 3 foot pulse). As for other activities like swimming and kayaking, the south coast will really be particularly nice for them. High tides in the late mornings (8.7m and 8.1m respectively). Low tides will be in the late afternoons (2.1m then 2.8m).

The Weekend

A couple of dry and sunny days, with a light NE’ly breeze on Saturday and a slightly stronger E’ly wind on Sunday. This should result in similar temperatures for both days… much like the previous two, with maxima of 21-22°C and minima of 13-14°C. Not as toasty as the first half of the week, but still plenty good enough for all your late season barbeques and the like.

Surf and the Water

Another two lovely days for sea-swimming and the 1-3 foot surf should be increasingly clean. Small tides, with late morning highs of 7.5m and 6.9m respectively.