Friday and the Weekend
Weather
Three very similar and uneventful days (weather-wise), so it would be too repetitive if I separated them out. Their common features will be; firstly, a cool N’ly airflow, which will give outstanding visibility across the sea to the French coast and the other islands; secondly, a missed bag of clear skies and cloudy spells, coming and going in a random fashion, but never threatening anything troublesome like rain or mist; thirdly; as a result of the air’s Arctic origin the daily max temps will only be 17-18°C (which means it might actually be warmer in the sea than out of it) and nightly min temps of 9-10°C (which means that most people can breathe easily and get a good night’s sleep). The only real differences between the days will be the strength of the N’ly wind… moderate force 4 on Friday (head to the south coast if you’re looking for shelter), light force 2 on Saturday (making this the most comfortable day in all parts) and then light force 3 on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
Very small surf, 1-2 feet at best, rather ruined by the cross-shore wind on Friday, but probably clean enough for keen kids to enjoy on Saturday and Sunday. Swimmers will be best off sheltering on the south coast through Friday, but the conditions should be lovely on all coasts through the weekend. Smallish tidal on Friday, with a high of just 8m at 10:50am, then getting much smaller through the weekend, with highs (shortly before midday) of just 7.4m and 6.8m respectively.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
As the high pressure system (which is responsible for this dry and settled weather) moves from Southwest Britain to the English Channel, our wind will shift to a very light (almost calm) SE’ly. This means that we will stop pulling in cold air from the far north. However, because the is no strength to the new wind, we will only really be influenced by the temperature of the nearby sea and northern France, so we won’t see anything more than an additional degree per day… maxima of 18-19°C on Monday, then 19-20°C on Tuesday. The sky will continue to be partly clear/partly cloudy, so the sunny spells will feel lovely during the daytime and the starry skies will be rather cool during the night time (min temps 10-11°C).
Surf and the Water
Tiny tidal movements, with early afternoon highs of only 6.3m. This means the currents will be very weak, so combined with the very light winds these will really be superb days for kayaking and paddle-boarding. The swimming will obviously be lovely too, but I’m afraid it’s looking rather too tiny for surfers… 1 foot and clean, so only really rideable for young kids.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
Wednesday should be dry but with an increasing amount of cloud and a strengthening S’ly wind. This is due to a mid-Atlantic low pressure system pushing closer towards us. During Thursday, that low will cross the UK eastwards, sprinkling us with a few showers, or perhaps a longer spell of rain, and switching our wind from a relatively warm S’ly in the morning to a fresh and cool NW’ly in the evening. Through Friday, we will remain in that cool NW’ly flow, but it should be mostly sunny, with only a chance of being hit by the odd brief shower.
Surf and the Water
The surf will probably jump up to 2 or 3 feet (nothing special but definitely more widely rideable than the previous days). There should be some decent opportunities for kite-surfers and windsurfers too. As for the swimming, some shelter will be required for a more pleasant experience, so this will initially be along the west and north coasts, but then it will transfer to the south coast by Friday. The tidal range will start to get larger again, with late afternoon/early evening highs of 6.9m on Wednesday, 7.6m on Thursday and 8.1m on Friday.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway