Monday
Weather
The wind will be strong throughout the day (force 5-6), but apart from that it can be described as a day of two halves. Dull grey skies with some fairly persistent rain through the morning, then sunny skies and just the odd brief shower through the afternoon and evening. The wind direction will be W’ly in the morning and then NW’ly through the rest of the day, so Town will always be the most sheltered and relatively pleasant place to hang out. Max temp… 16°C in most areas but 17°C in Town. Min temp overnight… 12-13°C.
Surf and the Water
The tiddly weekend waves will be replaced by some fairly large wind waves, meaning that there could be some fun lumps and humps for anyone that doesn’t describe themselves as a fair-weather surfer. Windsurfers and kite-surfers will probably have the most fun available on the west-coast. Meanwhile, over on the east coast, Fermain Bay should offer some decent shelter for swimmers. High water will be around 7:50am and 8pm (9.1m and 9.4m respectively). Low water will be at lunchtime.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
Two mostly dry days with only the most isolated of showers. Skies will be scattered with cloud but the sun will manage to make plenty of appearances and the visibility should be pretty good, because the air will come streaming down from colder regions on a force 5-6 NW’ly (possibly dropping off to force 3-4 on Wednesday, but that’s very uncertain right now). Temperatures will stay on the modest side, but nothing out of the ordinary for late September… most places peaking at 15°C both days, but Town generally managing to reach 16°C. Overnight minima still 12-13°C.
Surf and the Water
With some hurricane swell mixed in to the sloppy choppy wind waves, we could see some clean and rideable surf on the south coast, but that’s always a bit of a long shot so good luck if you fancy taking a punt. Windsurfers and kite-surfers will continue to enjoy great conditions out west and up north, whilst swimmers continue to seek shelter in the east and south. Tides will be high at 8:20am on Tuesday and at 8:50am on Wednesday (both 9.2m). Low tides will be 2:40pm and 3:10pm respectively
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday is currently set to be the most sunny and settled day of the week, whilst Friday is set to be the wettest and windiest. Because it’s a few days away, the timing and positioning of Friday’s storm is subject to change, so we might find that it eats into Thursday or is slightly delayed until Saturday. Alternatively, if the storm’s focus shifts a bit further north then it might turn out not to be such a big deal after all. However, according to recent computer models, the most likely outcome for Friday is force 7 WSW’ly winds and about 10-15mm of rain.
Surf and the Water
More lumpy surf (probably around 3-4 feet on the west coast, but maybe as large as 5-6ft). Thursday’s waves should be reasonably clean, as the onshore wind will only be light. Then Friday’s waves will probably be a right old mess, but you might find them quite attractive if you’re a bit of a hardcore windsurfer. High tides in the mid-mornings, low tides in the late afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
Because the weather is so changeable at the moment… low pressure systems popping up all over the Atlantic and dancing a jig around the British Isles, it is very hard to make a forecast with any kind of certainty. However, the current expectation is for a weekend that will be rather similar to the one we have just had. In other words, Friday’s filthy weather should have cleared off during the evening and night, leaving a couple of days with showers in the area, but an excellent chance that they will skirt around the islands and leave us with reasonably fine conditions. Saturday looks set to have a force 4-5 W’ly wind, so that will still feel a bit fresh in most places but it should feel nice in the shelter of Town. Sunday’s wind should then back SW’ly and fall lovely and light, meaning that it could feel reasonably warm and comfortable in all parts of the island on that day. Temperatures should be higher than during the week. If the weather pans out as described then we should peak at 18°C on Saturday and then 19°C or maybe even 20°C on Sunday.
Surf and the Water
The surf is currently looking big (6+ feet) so that should be particularly nice if conditions become clean on Sunday. Swimming conditions will always be best along the east coast. Tides will be high in the late mornings and low around dinner time.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday morning…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway