Guernsey Weather Fox

Saturday

Weather

After a couple of damp and misty days, this day of partial sunshine will be a welcome relief. It’s not likely to be entirely dry though, because there will be quite a few showers rattling around the Channel during the afternoon, so one or two of them are bound to bump into the islands. They shouldn’t spoil anybody’s day though, the washing can probably stay pegged on the line and there will be no need to stop running, cycling, footballing or whatever other outdoor activity you have planned. The wind start off as a moderate force 4 W’ly, then veer to a fresh force 5 SW’ly by late morning. The max temp should be about 17°C and the min temp should be about 13°C.

Surf and the Water

The surf should be quite small and messy in the morning, but bigger and cleaner in the afternoon (around 4 feet). Swimming conditions will be best along the east coast on this day. Make the most of this if you’re an east-coast fan, because those coves and beaches won’t be anywhere near as sheltered over the week that follows. High tide will be 8.2m at 10:15am. Low tide will be 2.9m at 4:30pm.

Sunday

Weather

There will be a bit of give and take on this day… Skies will be cloudier, but the wind won’t be quite as strong, this time a moderate force 4 SSE’ly. This should lead to a slightly higher max temperature than on Saturday (this time about 18°C). That will probably be in the early afternoon, just before a rash of showers push in from France, possibly turning quite heavy by the end of the day.

Surf and the Water

A classic day of surf, with clean and powerful 6-8 foot waves on the west coast, and possibly some rideable ripples on the north coast too. High tide will be 7.6m at 10:40am. Low tide will be 3.5m at 5pm.

Monday to Wednesday

Weather

It was hard to decide how to split this week, because the broad pressure pattern across Europe and the north Atlantic is not changing significantly, and the finer daily details are a bit uncertain I’m afraid. The thing that eventually separated these three days from the following two, is the wind direction… being ESE’ly, rather than SSE’ly. This continental airflow brings very warm air in the height of summer and very cold air in the depths of winter. October is a bit of a no-man’s land, but if anything then it probably leans slightly towards the summer characteristics, meaning that our daily temperatures should be warmer than average, with max temps of 18-20°C and min temps of 12-15°C. On Monday, the wind is looking lightest just a gentle force 2-3. However, that pleasantness will possibly be offset by a very large dollop of rain. The big uncertainty is whether it will turn up during the daytime or the night time (best check the next update regarding that). On Tuesday and Wednesday, we are likely to see lengthy spells of sunshine and just a few brief showers, but the wind is looking much stronger on these days… likely force 4 on Tuesday and then force 5-6 on Wednesday.

Surf and the Water

Amazingly clean surf, starting off around 4-5 feet on Monday, dropping off to 2-3 feet through Tuesday and Wednesday. Amazingly small tidal movements, with lunchtime highs of 7m on Monday, 6.5m on Tuesday and 6.4m on Wednesday. This will lead to very weak currents and therefore great swimming conditions (so long as steer clear of the largest waves and the strongest winds).

Thursday and Friday

The wind direction on these two days should be SSE’ly, which might lead to slight cooling, nothing major, just a degree or so off the daily max temps, down to about 18°C on Thursday and 16-17°C on Friday. Thursday should have the lightest winds (force 3-4) and the sunniest skies. Friday currently looks a bit grim by comparison… strengthening wind, thickening cloud, probably resulting in about half a day of rain. However, these finer forecast details are highly likely to change from one update to the next, so it’s always good to have a plan-B at the ready.

Surf and the Water

The surf should be 3 feet and clean (possibly 4 feet on Friday but that’s obviously very uncertain at this early stage). Tidal movements will start to increase again… late afternoon highs of 6.8m on Thursday and 7.4m on Friday.