Monday
Weather
Probably a little rain around dawn, but this should clear eastwards pretty soon, with cracks of blue sky gradually revealing themselves later in the morning. During the afternoon, we should see some longer spells of hazy sunshine, but there will still be a lot of cloud around for the majority of the time. The air will be very mild (peaking at around 18°C and the winds will be comfortably light, dropping from a force 4 SW’ly first thing, to light force 2 to 3 by lunchtime, then backing to a E’ly direction in the afternoon.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be about 4 feet and clean in the morning, thanks to the lightness of the cross-shore wind. Then it should be super-clean in the afternoon as that breeze switches offshore. Small tides will mean great swimming conditions all around the island. High water will be 7m around 11:15am. Low water will be 4.1m around 5:30pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
These two days will by misty for quite a bit of the time, maybe thickening up to proper fog during the mornings and nights. If there’s going to be any sunshine then it will most likely be in the afternoons, and the force 4-5 SE’ly winds will bring further mild air, peaking around 18-19°C by day, and only dropping to a muggy 15°C during the nights. As for rainfall, there will generally just be the odd brief shower at times, but there could be longer and heavier spells of rain during the night times
Surf and the Water
The surf should be about 3 feet early morning Tuesday, dropping to just 1-2 feet by the end of the day and then staying that small through Wednesday. The waves will be lovely and clean, so there should be plenty of fun for longboarders and paddle-boarders. Small tides will mean great swimming conditions all around the island. Tiny tidal movements, with lunchtime highs of just 6.5m on Tuesday and 6.4m on Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday is looking much sunnier and with lighter (force 3-4) SSE’ly breezes, we should reach 18-19°C quite easily again. Friday is looking cloudier with occasional showers and with stronger (force 5-6) SSW’ly winds. However, the air will be inherently warm, so a top temp of 18-19°C should be quite achievable again, especially in Town.
Surf and the Water
The surf should pick up to 3 feet by the end of Thursday and then increase to 6 feet by the end of Friday, with good quality clean conditions through the vast majority of that time. The tides will be low in the mid to late mornings, and they will be high in the late afternoons (6.8m and 7.4m respectively).
The Weekend
IT’s too hard to pin down the details at this range, but with the mid-Atlantic low pressure system shuffling a little bit closer to the Channel, we should see the winds (generally S’ly) increase to strong force 6 to 7, and the showers will probably be more frequent and heavy. This will all result in a slightly cooler feeling, but with max temps in the high teens this would still be classed as very mild, compared to the late-October average.
Surf and the Water
Another couple of days of clean waves for surfers to enjoy, most likely ranging in size between around 3 and 5 feet. The tidal range will be getting a bit larger again though, making it a little trickier to find that perfect uncrowded session. Low water will be around midday, and the highs will be shortly before dawn and shortly before dusk (picking up to 8.6m by Sunday evening).
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday…
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Swim Conditions
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Lihou Causeway