Friday
Weather
Friday’s air will be inherently cooler than Thursday’s, brought to us by a NNW’ly blast (strong force 6 at first, relaxing to moderate force 4 by the afternoon). However, there will be plenty of sunshine and it should stay mostly dry (just the slim chance of a shower at breakfast time), so this will probably result in the same max of 14°C as on Thursday. Head into Town or, even better, head to the south coast cliff paths and beaches, if you want to feel warmest.
Surf and the Water
Huge waves on the west coast, but beautifully clean and probably very surfable waves on the south coast. I’m estimating between waist and head high waves down there, depending on your precise choice of time and place. The south coast will also be best for swimmers, but there will be a lot more swell than people are accustomed to seeing down there, so I should stick to the most sheltered western end of Moulin Huet bay if you’re looking for your usual smoothness. Likewise, the east coast will become smoother in the afternoon, so I expect that high-tide Fermain will be a good choice (roughly 8.1m at 3:30pm).
The Weekend
Weather
We will have a force 5-6 SSW’ly wind on Saturday, veering to a strong force 6-7 WSW’ly on Sunday. There will be quite a lot of showers too, but the heaviest and most frequent of these will be during the evenings and nights, so there is a good chance of some drier conditions during daylight hours, but I’m afraid sunshine will be in very short supply. As for the temperature, that will make a slight recovery, picking up to a max of 15°C on both days.
Surf and the Water
The weekend surf will be a much more typical west-coast affair (maybe a decent north-coast day on Sunday). Saturday’s waves will be small and friendly (around 2-3 feet and clean), then Sunday’s waves will be big and very powerful (increasing through the day to about 8-10 feet on the west coast and hopefully 3-4 feet on the north). Tides will be low in the late mornings. If you know your tides then you will know that this means we are moving towards another phase of spring tides… Saturday’s high will be 8.6m around 4:20pm and Sunday’s high will be 9.1m around 5:10pm.
Monday to Wednesday
Weather
SW’ly winds will bring mild air on most days, so we can expect the max temps to generally be around 16°C and the min temps generally around 12°C. Those winds are now looking stronger than previously expected, never really dropping below fresh force 5, quite often as strong as force 6-7. Skies will be cloudy and showers will be frequent and heavy through Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday promises to be much drier and sunnier, but that’s still quite a long way off, so it might be wise to moderate your optimism with a healthy dose of cautious scepticism.
Surf and the Water
Big tides are always a bit awkward for the west coast in the winter time, when daylight is limited, but there could be some decent dawn sessions to be had at the high-tide spots. Big and powerful waves though (double overhead), so these sessions will probably best left to the most experienced surfers. For smaller waves that work through the lower half of the tide, there could be a decent north-coast session or two. Tides will be high around dawn and shortly after dusk (varying between 9.1m and 9.5m). Low water will be around lunchtime every day.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
The current expectation is that winds will back to a SE’ly direction, probably reduce to moderate force 4 and bring two days of dry and sunny weather. Daylight hours are short, but they could potentially be lovely, compared to the relentless onslaught of foul weather that we have had of late. Night-time hours will be long, but the starlight and the moonlight could still be lovely for walkers, runners and cyclists to indulge in.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean 4-6 feet surf is most likely. The tidal movements will still be large though, with lows in the early afternoons and breakfast time highs of 9.2m and 9m respectively.
The next forecast update will be on Sunday evening…
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