Guernsey Weather Fox

Monday and Tuesday

Weather

Mixed cloud and sunshine through Monday, with no further showers likely. Winds will be light force 3 E’ly in the morning, increasing to moderate force 4 SE’ly in the afternoon (max temp 5-6°C, min temp 1-2°C). Tuesday looks more consistently cloudy with a moderate force 4 E’ly, meaning that the temperature will lock in at 3-4°C and the wind-chill will feel particularly unpleasant. As I mentioned on my previous forecast, there is a threat of significant snow on Tuesday night. It’s always tricky to forecast snow in the Channel Islands with any kind of certainty. This time the uncertainties are firstly whether it will come on Tuesday night or if it will wait until Wednesday, then secondly whether it will be focussed on us or whether it will really dump its load on France whilst only giving us a pathetic portion of sleet. Best to keep an eye on any available updates.

Surf and the Water

High tide will be around breakfast time (8.3m and 8m respectively). Low tide will be in the mid-afternoons. The west coast will be best for both swimming (brrr) and surfing. Monday’s waves will gradually increase from 2 feet with very long intervals in the morning, to 4 feet and a bit more consistent in the afternoon. Tuesday’s waves will be 3-5 feet, clean and strong all day long.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

So… there is a chance that we will wake up to a covering of snow on Wednesday, and there’s also a chance that will receive the snow a bit later in the day, and finally there’s a chance that we get nothing more than a few portions of sleet. Either way, the wind will pep up to a fresh to strong NE’ly by Thursday and that’s going to feel so bitter… The temperature is unlikely to rise above 4 or 5°C at any time on Wednesday or Thursday. Friday should be a bit nicer though, as the wind changes to a light to moderate N’ly, probably giving us sunshine through a good chunk of the day, before finally turning cloudy and showery later (Friday max marginally higher around 7°C).

Surf and the Water

The surf will gradually decrease from 3-4 feet on Wednesday to 1-2 feet on Friday. Furthermore, the cross-shore wind will make it pretty lousy compared to the first half of the week. If you’re swimming then the best place to escape that wind will be along the south coast. High tides will be in the late mornings (7.6m Wednesday, 7.3m Thursday and 7.0m Friday) and low tides will be around dusk.

The Weekend

Weather

Through Saturday, the skies will be mostly cloudy but dry (just a chance of the odd light shower) whilst the the wind gradually changes from a light N’ly to a moderate SSE’ly. Then through Sunday, the SSE’ly will strengthen to force 6 or maybe even force 7. And Sunday won’t just be very windy, it will also be very wet, with rain fluctuating between light and heavy but pretty much staying with us all day long. Horrible as that sounds though, temperatures will be firmly on the rise, with a max of 8°C on Saturday and probably 10°C on Sunday.

Surf and the Water

Flat surf on Saturday, but maybe a new swell on Sunday (time will tell). If we do get waves then they should be clean along the west coast thanks to the new wind direction, so there (as well as the north coast) you will also be able to find the best swimming conditions, especially around lunchtime when the tide is high (7.0m and 7.2m respectively).