Christmas Eve
Weather
Not looking as great as previously expected, but in the grand scheme it could be a lot worse. The morning should be dry with a little brightness sneaking through the cracks in the cloud sheet, only the smallest chance of catching a brief shower. It’s through lunchtime and during the afternoon that things might turn wetter. We are currently expecting a few hours of rain to affect Jersey and probably (although lighter and more patchy) to also affect Guernsey at times. As for the wind story, that’s pretty uneventful, with just a moderate force 4 SSW’ly breeze bringing relatively mild air and a max temp of about 12°C.
Surf and the Water
Clean 5-6 foot surf on the west coast. Awkward tides though, with the highs being before dawn and after dusk, meaning that the water will generally be too low through most of the daylight hours. The highs will be 9.4m at 6:50am and 9.2m at 7:20pm. Low water will be 1.3m at 1:20pm.
Christmas Day
Weather
With no real change in the wind from Christmas eve, there won’t be a lot of change in the weather, further lines of showers or more persistent rain will stream across the Channel, mostly affecting Jersey but also soaking Guernsey and the rest of the Bailiwick from time to time. In between these wet spells there will be some dry and possibly bright intervals, so there should be plenty of opportunity for pleasant Christmas stroll. It’s just uncertain whether this will be before lunch (to work up an appetite) or after lunch (to walk it off and balance it out). Max temp 11-12°C this time, pretty much the same as Christmas Eve.
Surf and the Water
Clean 6-7 foot surf on the west coast. As for the tides, high water will be 9.5m at 7:40am and low water will be 1.2m at 2:10pm.
Boxing Day
Weather
The wind direction will have flipped to a WNW’ly and it will be blowing fresh force 5, possibly sprucing up to strong force 6 at times, so despite being sunny at times, with only the briefest and most isolated showers, it is going to feel very chilly in most areas (not too bad around Town and Fermain though). Max temp just 10-11°C. Min temps a couple of degrees lower than the previous nights, this time just 7-8°C.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be about 5-6 feet and choppy, due to the onshore wind, that wind will also make Cobo beach a bit chilly for anybody who is standing around before or after the big sea swim. As for the sea temperature, that’s currently between 10 and 11°C. And the tides… high water will be 9.5m at 8:30am and low water will be 1.2m at 3pm.
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
The slightly cooler air that was introduced on Monday will soon be chased away, as Tuesday’s wind reverts to a SW’ly direction and pretty much maintains that bearing through the rest of the week. To summarise the story, it’s all going to be on the mild side (typical daily maxima of 12°C and nightly minima of 10°C) with showers or longer spells of rain coming and going, whilst the wind simultaneously fluctuates in strength. Currently Wednesday and Friday look set to be the wettest days (10-15mm likely on those days). As for the windiest days… Wednesday and Thursday looks set to take that title (probably strong force 7 but possible getting right up to gale force 8).
Surf and the Water
The wind direction will make the west-coast surf pretty clean most days, but it might be difficult to manage later in the week as the winds possibly pep up to gale force. Wave heights will be relatively small on Tuesday (less than 6 feet) but potentially very large from Wednesday onward (probably around 10 feet). Tidal movements will be quite large on Tuesday (highs of around 9m) becoming medium sized by Friday (with a midday high of roughly 8m).
The next forecast update will be on Boxing Day …
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