Monday
Weather
The gusty winds that maybe kept you up at night, along with the occasional rattly showers of rain or hail, will continue into Monday morning, but we will probably have seen the last of them by lunchtime, because they will be so sparsely scattered through the afternoon that they are unlikely to catch us. When showers are not affecting us, we should see a decent amount of sunshine but the wind will keep us in a constant feed of chilly air, so temperatures are unlikely to exceed 9°C anywhere other than in Town. Those winds will be WNW’ly strong force 6, with gusts of around 45mph, mainly near showers. Overnight, the winds will back to a S’ly direction and this will introduce milder air, so although we might dip as low as 7°C in the evening, we should bounce back to 10°C by dawn on Tuesday.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 10-12 feet and very choppy, but Petit Port could offer some half-decent south-coast waves in the lower half of the tide. It’s difficult to recommend anywhere for swimmers really, other than Fermain or Havelet during the first half of the morning. High water will be about 8.7m just before 8am (very splashy along the west coast, so drive carefully) and low water will be around 2:15pm.
Tuesday and Wednesday
Weather
Tuesday will start off with a strong force 6 SSW’ly wind and a morning of persistent rain, drizzle and mist. The visibility should come good by lunchtime and the drizzle will only be light and intermittent. Then, during the evening, a band of heavier rain will pass over the area as the wind veers to W’ly direction. That should clear eastwards around midnight and after that we will be into an alternating pattern of clear sky and transient showers, and this regime should take us all the way through Wednesday. The only subsequent change being an increase in the wind strength to a strong force 7 WSW’ly, possibly even gale force 8 as we go through the night into Thursday. Max temps around 12°C each day, min temps around 9°C each night.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will be 4 feet and clean on Tuesday morning so it would be a good idea to seize that moment, because by Wednesday it will be 8-10 feet and very messy again. However, like on many recent days, there will be some big smiles and aching muscles amongst the islands hardcore windsurfers. High tides will be around breakfast time (8.5m and 8.4m respectively), low tides will be in the mid to late afternoons.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Thursday looks like both the wettest and windiest day, with a strong force 7 or perhaps gale force 8 SW’ly wind bringing cloudy skies, and a couple of lengthy spells of rain… one in the early morning and the other in the late afternoon and evening. Friday should then be mostly dry, as a force 5 to 6 W’ly only brings a sparse scattering of showers to the Channel, most of them (if not all of them) missing the islands and just passing by on the distant horizon. Temperatures will be highest on Thursday (12°C) but it will really feel unpleasant out there, due to the awful wind and weather. On Friday, we will only make it to 11°C but the relaxation of wind and weather will hopefully make it more attractive for decent winter walk.
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 10-12 feet and choppy both days. Swimmers should either give it a miss or stick to the extreme shelter of eastern spots like Fermain at high water (mid mornings 8.1m and 7.1m respectively). Low tides will be towards dusk.
The Weekend
Weather
In some ways it’s like the previous two days repeated… very wet and windy on Saturday and generally more settled on Sunday. Slight differences in wind detail though, with a deep low pressure system passing along the south coast of England on Saturday. This will mean that winds will be near gale force as they start the day SSW’ly and gradually veer WSW’ly. Then on Sunday we should be in a force 5 WNW’ly, which will bring cooler, clearer air, so we are probably talking about a decent dose of sunshine on that day (but it’s a long way off, so don’t be too surprised if the story changes before then).
Surf and the Water
The surf will be 8-10 feet… clean for much of Saturday but very difficult due to the wind strength, then generally choppy on Sunday. Swimmers should either give it a miss or stick to the extreme shelter of eastern spots like Fermain at high water (late mornings 7.7m and 7.4m respectively). Low tides will be shortly after dusk.
The next forecast update will be on Wednesday morning…
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