Saturday
Weather
Another wet, windy and grey day. The bulk of the rain and drizzle will fall through the morning, then it will be on and off/patchy through the afternoon, becoming dry towards dusk or soon after. The seemingly drier and clearer night-time weather will be because we will be in a colder airmass by then, and unfortunately cold airmasses and relatively warm seas are a very fertile breeding ground for heavy showers, so we won’t be very far into the night before the first hammering downpour, possibly with hail and thunder. Wind-wise, it’s going to be force 6 to 7 SSW’ly through most of the morning, then W’ly force 5 to 6 by lunchtime and then ramping back up to force 6 to 7 during the night time. Daytime max temp 11-12°C, overnight min temp 4-5°C.
Surf and the Water
The west coast surf will be about 8 feet and super clean in the morning. Then, in the afternoon, it’s going to turn into a right old mess, but there might possibly be some semi-decent wedges at Petit Bot. Windsurfers will be loving this day as much as every day of late. And, once again, swimmers will be best off in the sheltered east, especially when the tide is highest (7.7m at 10:45am).
Sunday
Weather
The strong force 6 to 7 W’ly blast will continue, with some particularly strong gusts coming in combination with further heavy showers of rain or hail. There could still be the odd rumble of thunder, but you will be pretty sharp if you can decipher it from all the other noise. In between the showers however, we will see some blue sky and sunshine, so perhaps if you go for a well-timed walk in the sheltered southeast then you might even enjoy your little dose of fresh air. Max temp 8-9°C, min temp 4-5°C.
Surf and the Water
The west coast surf will be about 10 feet and very messy I’m afraid. However, once again, it will still be enjoyable for hardcore windsurfers and the cold-water swimmers should definitely stick to the sheltered eastern spots. High water will be about 7.5m at 11:35am.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Sunday’s strong winds and heavy showers will fade away through the morning, leaving the afternoon and evening to be a cold but dry oasis of calm. Then overnight, showers of rain and hail will move in, as the cold air breeds a small-scale low-pressure system in the Channel for Tuesday. It’s uncertain how strong the winds will be around this low, but their direction is very hard to predict at this time, and it will affect how frequent and prolonged the showers are. If they last long enough then it could cause the rain component of the showers to turn into sleet and snow. Accumulations are highly unlikely but it could still stir up plenty of excitement around the islands. Temperatures look likely to stay in the low single figures throughout these two days, and it’s possible that we might even get down to zero on Tuesday night if winds are light enough.
Surf and the Water
Although, completely variable and directionally unpredictable, there might be a couple of times when the winds are light enough for the surf to clean right up. On Monday those waves will be about 10 feet and on Tuesday they will be 6-8 feet. Tides will be about high around lunchtime (7.4m).
The Rest of Next Week
Weather
After a very cold but probably dry Wednesday, we will see a recovery in temperatures on Thursday (high single figures) and Friday (possibly double figures). With this relative warming, we will also see some showers and perhaps a more prolonged spell of rain (most likely Thursday night). Winds don’t look likely to be as strong as they have been this past week… probably blowing moderate force 4 for the majority of the time, mostly NW’ly but possibly backing to a force 5-6 SW’ly if that longer spell of rain does occur.
Surf and the Water
With winds mostly NW’ly, it doesn’t look as though the west-coast surf will ever be particularly clean. However, once again, those winds could be light enough to make some shapely ramps, and it might even be fun if you’re rubbered up good and proper. Tides will be high around dusk (slightly before on Wednesday and slightly after on Friday)… 7.5m, 7.9m and 8.5m respectively.
The next forecast update will be on Monday evening…
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