Friday and Saturday
Weather
The common thread between these two days is the W’ly wind direction , which means that we will have air of very similar influence and temperature etc. However, Friday’s wind will be slightly stronger (force 4 rather than force 3) and Saturday’s skies will be slightly cloudier. These push and pull factors will more or less cancel each other out, meaning that both days feel roughly the same, with their maxima of roughly 11°C and their minima of roughly 7°C. There is just the smallest chance of a shower on either day. However, if we do catch one then it will be brief and light, much like the negligible spits and spots that we have had over the past couple of days, so there certainly won’t be any need to rush out and rescue the laundry.
Surf and the Water
The surf will fluctuate between 2 and 4 feet, and it should be pretty clean on both days, not due to the wind being offshore but because the onshore wind will be pretty light. The other good thing about the light wind is that it will make most coasts good for our winter sea-swimmers, not just the sheltered east. As for the tidal movements, they’ve been tiny all week but they are getting slightly larger again now, with highs of roughly 7.4m on Friday (around dusk) and around 7.8m on Saturday (roughly an hour pre-dawn and post-dusk).
Sunday and Monday
Weather
With high pressure almost directly overhead on Sunday, we will see very light NE’ly breezes in the morning, backing almost imperceptibly to a due E’ly direction in the afternoon. On Monday, as the high shifts slightly eastward, our local wind will veer SE’ly and strengthen to moderate force 4. On both day’s this means that the air temperature will be influenced by the cooler continent rather than the milder ocean. Therefore, despite lengthy spells of sunshine on Sunday and almost wall-to-wall sunshine on Monday, the temperature will still fall by a couple of degrees each day (maxima of 9°C and 7°C respectively) and the overnight temperatures will be low enough for ground frost to form in places. The air should be nice and dry though, so you probably won’t have to scrape your windscreens at the ends of those nights.
Surf and the Water
After a slightly choppy Sunday morning, the rest of the day’s surf should be increasingly clean and then Monday’s surf should be absolutely pristine and perfect. Wave heights will be on the decline though, with 4-6 feet on Sunday, then 2-4 feet on Monday. Tides will be high shortly before dawn (8.2m and 8.5m respectively). Low tides will be around lunchtime.
The Next Six Days
Weather
This is a tricky one… the bulk of forecast models maintain a dry and relatively cold (but not desperately cold) scenario until Friday, then pull in a milder SSW’ly airflow, as low pressure and generally unsettled weather muscles its way back into the Channel from the Atlantic. However, a significant minority of models, actually maintain a NE’ly flow over the Channel, which would lead to a continuing decline in temperatures, taking them right down to the low single figures by day and very close to zero by night. Furthermore, if the cold scenario does prevail, then it wouldn’t be out of the question for some snow flurries to develop where the air is forced to rise as it glides over the relatively warm water mid-Channel. So there is a lot to play for at the moment, but the current expectations is not for the very cold scenario to prevail. For now, it is just a possibility that is worth being aware of.
Surf and the Water
Tides will stay medium large (always between 8m and 9m for the highs), moving forward by about half an hour each day, until we end up with highs in the late morning, by Sunday Feb 12th. Surf conditions will be clean as a whistle, with one long distance swell after another, meaning that the waves will be powerful, rarely smaller than 4 feet, occasionally as large as 8 feet.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway