Monday
Weather
We should see some sunny intervals for the first time in a few days. They will only briefly punctuate the cloudy skies but at least it will be something. Furthermore, the temperature should get up to 8°C (a couple of degrees up the previous days) thanks to a new airflow from the west… light force 3 in the morning, moderate force 4 in the afternoon. As for showers, there will probably be one or two during the daytime (only brief and light), then they will become slightly more frequent and a little heavier during the night time.
Surf and the Water
Choppy 2-3 foot surf on the west coast, possibly quite good there for kite-surfing too. Head east if you’re looking for smoother water to swim in. High tide will be about 8.4m around 6:10am. Low tide will be around 12:30pm.
Tuesday
Weather
Only the slim chance of a little brightness at times, but generally a cloudy and showery day, with a force 3 to 4 W’ly breeze bringing similar temperatures to Monday (max 8°C). Town will be on the sheltered side of the island, so there (as well as Fermain) should feel pretty comfortable, despite the dreary grey skies. Overnight is when things will become a bit more interesting… strong force 6 N’ly winds around midnight, veering E’ly by dawn, with persistent rain probably turning to sleet or snow for a time. Don’t get too excited though, because when it turns back to rain it will wash away any attempt at accumulation.
Surf and the Water
Similarly choppy to Monday but with bigger waves, picking up from around 3 feet at dawn to 6+ feet by dusk. The west coast might be ok for kite surfers too, whilst the east coast will be the place for smooth-water swimmers. High tide will be about 8.9m around 6:45am. Low tide will be around 1:10pm.
Wednesday
Weather
It’s still uncertain whether any overnight sleet or snow will have happened at all. An then it’s even more uncertain whether it would last into the morning. If that is the case, then it’s very unlikely to last more than an hour before it turns back to rain and clears any brief accumulations away. As the morning progresses the wind will veer to a fresh S’ly and then through the afternoon it will further veer SW’ly. All the while pulling milder air over the islands. The max temp will probably come after sunset (9°C) and with that there will probably be heavier rain, mist and some hill for to finish the day.
Surf and the Water
Super-clean 2-4 foot waves, but probably with some very unpleasant weather. You surfers will have to dig deep but you might be well rewarded. High tide will be about 9.1m around 7:15am. Low tide will be around 1:40pm
Thursday to Sunday
Weather
There will be a couple of moments when the wind relaxes and the weather becomes dry and sunny. However, they will generally be brief and, for the vast majority of these four days, winds will be strong force 6 WSW’ly, bringing mild air (around 12°C) but with occasional heavy showers and one or two longer spells of rain and drizzle. Furthermore, with that drizzle, we will probably see a few more bouts of mist and hill fog. All the time, Town and Fermain will be relatively sheltered, so those they will be the most comfortable areas to head out for a bit of fresh air.
Surf and the Water
Definitely some strong windsurfing conditions, particularly through the weekend. As for the west-coast surfing, it sure is going to be big and choppy. Possibly the north coast will offer a useful alternative, but that is uncertain at the moment. As for swimming, it will be strictly east coast for that, preferably whilst the tide is high. Those high tides will be just over 9m on Thursday and Friday, then just under 9m through the weekend (always around breakfast time). Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway