Wednesday
Weather
Even at this late stage, it’s really hard to say whether Wednesday’s vicious low-pressure system will pass almost directly over the islands or about 50 miles to the north. This will spell the difference between finishing the day with a strong force 6 or a gale force 8 WSW’ly wind. However, it won’t make any difference to the plentiful rainfall that’s expected across the period (10-20mm), and it won’t make any difference to the fresh force 4-5 SW’ly wind that will affect the islands through the majority of the day (whilst the low is still approaching from the west). So yes the wet story is certain, and the top temperature (10-11°C) is also pretty certain. What we don’t know is whether we need to batten down the hatches (always better to be over-prepared than under though).
Surf and the Water
Semi-clean west-coast surf, varying between 3 and 6 feet, as there will be a bit of a confusion of long and short period swells. Good windsurfing and kite-surfing conditions too. The high tides will be about 9.2m at 7:20am and about 9.1m at 7:40pm. The west coast roads could be very splashy around those times, so careful if driving or parking around there.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Two more very unsettled days. Thursday will have a strong force 5-6 SSW’ly wind for the most part, then a strong force 7 to gale force 8 during the evening and overnight. Weather-wise, it’s looking mostly cloudy with heavy showers or longer spells of rain. If there are any sunny intervals then the will be very brief. However, the temperature should reach a max of 12°C, which at least means that we can turn a few radiators off. Moving on to Friday… the wind will gradually ease from the initial strong force 6-7 WNW'ly to just a light force 3 N'ly by dusk. The morning cloudy but mostly dry and then the afternoon still cloudy and with some fairly persistent rain.
Surf and the Water
Clean west-coast waves on Thursday (5-6 feet), then messy waves on Friday (10-12 feet). Both days good for the hardcore windsurfers though. If you’re swimming then you will probably find it least windy around breakfast time on Thursday and towards dinner time on Friday (east coast will always be best for shelter). Tides will be big and splashy on the west coast (around 9.2m at 7:50am Thursday and at 8:20am Friday). Low tides will be in the early afternoons.
The Weekend
Weather
Saturday will be a tad cooler, only just making it to double figures, as we probably won’t see any sunshine again. Winds will be SE’ly and a bit lighter than previous days (force 3-4). Most of the time we will be looking at grey sky and drizzle. However, there is a slim chance of some heavy showers towards the beginning and the end of the day. Sunday then looks set to have fresh force 5 SSW’ly winds, bringing the old cocktail of sunshine, showers and rainbows (max temp 12°C on that day).
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf is looking super-clean on Saturday and almost as clan on Sunday… around 6 feet on Saturday, picking up to as much as 10 feet through Sunday. Sunday will probably offer some lovely waves on the north coast, for those (most of us) who would rather it wasn’t quite so massive. Tides will still be big but they will be on the gradual decline, with highs of around 9m at 8:45am Saturday and around 8.6m at 9:15am Sunday. Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons.
Next Week
Weather
Staying unsettled, with winds mostly strong and varying between S’ly and W’ly with the passing of numerous weather fronts. However, there will be some transient ridges of high pressure, to break things up and give us the odd half day of sunshine and lighter breezes. Most days will peak around 10 or 11°C, but we could manage something a bit warmer than that, if those ridges of high pressure coincide with the middle part of the day. Likewise the overnight minimum temperatures will probably be unremarkable (around 8°C) unless the air becomes calm and clear at that time, in which case we might plunge a few degrees lower and run the risk of some ground frost.
Surf and the Water
The surf will likely be on the big side most days, and the wind should be cross-offshore (clean) more often than it is onshore (messy). Tides will become small, with the highs moving from mid-morning at the start of the week (just over 8m) to the mid-afternoon by the end of the week (just under 7m).-
The next forecast update will be on Friday or Saturday…
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Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway