Tuesday
Weather
The stand-out sunniest and coolest day of the week. This is due to the WNW’ly wind (force 5 to 6 in the morning, force 3 to 4 in the afternoon), bringing inherently chilly air to the islands. Daytime max 8–9°C. Overnight me in 4–5°C. The showers will be concentrated into the morning, when the wind will make them rather squally, and there’s only a slim chance of one or two lighter showers returning in the evening.
Surf and the Water
Very messy 10-12 foot surf on the west coast in the morning, just cleaning up slightly as it drops off a couple of feet towards the end of the day. There could be some clean and manageable waves down on the south coast as well, I would estimate around 4 feet and best in the afternoon. Winter swimmers will find the best shelter on either the east coast or the south coast. High tide will be about 7.8m at 10:30am. Low tide will be at 4:45pm.
Wednesday
Weather
This is the first of three mostly cloudy days with a predominantly S’ly airflow. However, it stands out as the most likely to stay dry and maintain good visibility. This is because the cloud bases will always be a few thousand feet above the ground and the only rainfall is likely to be spits and spots from time to time. Yes, it will be rather dull and grey, but the temperature should climb to 11°C quite comfortably, the wind just light force 3 in the morning, picking up to force 4-5 by the end of the day, preventing the nighttime temperature from falling any lower than 8 or 9°C.
Surf and the Water
Gorgeous clean 4 foot surf along the west coast, with small tides (a high of 7.1m at 11:30am) making it even easier to find good waves across the morning and the afternoon. West will also be best for swimmers, although the north coast will also be good.
Thursday and Friday
Weather
Through these two days, the wind will be mostly S’ly, but occasionally SW’ly, as drizzly and misty weather fronts come and go. This does mean that fog is likely to affect to the airport at times. However, we should always snap out of it as the fronts clear eastward, so we will hopefully only be talking about minor delays rather than anything too disruptive. It certainly won’t be cold though with daily maxima of about 12°C and nightly minima of just 9 or 10°C. Thursday’s winds look strongest (force 5 for the most part), Friday’s nice and light (just force 2-3 for the most part).
Surf and the Water
Two more days of super-clean west-coast surf. It will be getting bigger though, so beginners might prefer to head to the north coast on Friday. West-coast wave hights should pick up from 3 feet to 6 feet through Thursday and then hold between 5 and 8 feet through Friday. The tidal movements will be tiny, with a 6.7m high around 1pm on Thursday, then a 6.9m high around 3pm on Friday.
The Weekend
Weather
It’s a bit too uncertain to forecast the finer detail with any kind of accuracy, but the overall story is that Saturday will have similarly damp and murky air to the previous couple of days, but Sunday’s marginally cooler air should should be much drier and brighter. Saturday’s top temperature should be about 12°C, but the wind will be a force 4–5 SW’ly. Sunday’s top temperature 11°C, but feeling much more comfortable, thanks to the better weather and the breeze reducing to a light force 3 WSW’ly.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will not be as clean as the previous days, but it shouldn’t be too bad. Wave heights will gradually decline, from around 6 feet at the start of Saturday, to 4 feet by the end of Sunday. Sea-swimmers will find the odd sheltered nook out west, but heading north or east will make it much easier to score some smooth water. Tides will be low in the late mornings and high in the late afternoons (7.6m and 8.3m respectively).
The next forecast update will be on Thursday evening…
Previous Weather Fox ForecastsTide Tables
Swim Conditions
Ormering
Lihou Causeway