Sunday
Weather
The backend of the week has been sunnier than initially expected, and Sunday looks likely to stay that way, although the presence of high cirrus cloud does mean that the sunshine will be more hazy and the sky will be more baby blue than royal blue. Saturday’s lofty temperatures won’t be matched, because this time we will have a NW’ly airflow (generally force 3-4 in the morning and force 2-3 in the afternoon). This should lead to a top temp of 12°C in most areas but probably 13°C in Town. Overnight temps (thanks to thickening cloud) shouldn’t fall any lower than 8°C.
Surf and the Water
Smaller choppier surf than the past few epic days. However, the 3 foot waves should be reasonably clean towards the end of the day, when the onshore wind is lightest. The latter part of the day will also be best for sea swimmers, although, it should be pretty good all day if you head to one of the most sheltered spots, such as Petit Bot, Saints’ Bay, Moulin Huet or Fermain. Low tide will be at 11:10am and high tide will be about 8.2m at 5:10pm.
Monday and Tuesday
Weather
Winds will back SSW’ly and strengthen to force 4-5 through Monday, whilst skies remain cloudy and patchy rain or drizzle comes and goes. It will often be misty too, with a little hill-fog at times, so air traffic might well experience one or two delays. Tuesday then looks much drier and brighter, with the winds staying around force 4-5 but nudging slightly to a more direct SW’ly. Any sunshine on Tuesday should feel really pleasant if you’re in a sheltered area, like Pleinmont or anywhere between Jerbourg and Town.
Surf and the Water
Monday will have smallest surf of the week, only 2 feet at best, but at least it will be lovely and clean whenever a rideable set does roll through. If you’re a sea swimmer then it will be good to take max advantage of this day, before things turn much windier later in the week. Monday’s tides will be low at midday and high around dawn and dusk (9m). Tuesday’s surf will crank up to around 5 feet and still be pretty clean, the tides about 45 minutes later than on Monday (highs of about 9.6m). Once again, the top temps should be around 13°C and the min temps around 8 or 9°C.
Wednesday to Friday
Weather
The windier end of the working week, with force 5-6 SW’ly becoming the norm, but with the possibility of increasing t0 force 7 when the wettest weather fronts pass over the area. Away from those one or two weather-fronts, we will probably be talking about sunny intervals and fleeting showers. Some of those showers might well be heavy, but the strength of the wind mean that they will rarely last longer than a couple of minutes, and there should be a few pretty rainbows to make you feel a bit happier about the situation. Max temps slightly lower 11°C in most areas but 12°C in Town. Min temps most likely around 7°C.
Surf and the Water
Tides will be about 10m high during the morning rush-hour and around 7 or 8pm, and these will very splashy on the west-coast roads, because we will have increasingly strong SW’ly winds and increasingly large waves, such that by Friday those winds will be close to gale force and the waves will be about 8-12 feet.
The Weekend
Weather
It’s certainly looking unsettled at some point, with computer models consistently predicting a deep low pressure system to pass over the area, or at least very close to the area. Timing is uncertain, but it looks as though Saturday night and Sunday morning are the most likely time for the strongest gales and heaviest rain, so there is a chance that Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon/evening will be reasonably pleasant. Obviously nothing like as lovely as the weekend before it, but still quite mild at least, with max temps of 10-12°C and min temps of 8-10°C.
Surf and the Water
Saturday’s surf doesn’t look as big Friday’s but it might be much bigger on Sunday, due to the possibility of a strong storm on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Any swimmers or surfers will want to seek shelter on Saturday… this probably means east coast for swimming and north coast for Surfing. The top half of the tide always being best for shelter too. As for Sunday, the calmest conditions will be towards the end of the day, and there’s a chance that the south coast could offer something special for surfers.
The next forecast update will be on Tuesday or Wednesday…
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