Thursday
Weather
Make the most of today’s relatively gentle winds, lengthy spells of sunshine (only punctuated by one or two brief showers), because it’s looking massively nicer than Friday, and you really need to be battening down the hatches for tonight. So I’ll skim over daylight hours pretty quickly… winds will be moderate force 4 SW’ly (perhaps occasionally fresh force 5) and temperatures will peak at 12-13°C in most places but probably sneak up to 14°C in Town. Moving on to this evening, Rain will set in shortly before dusk and that will be with us for the rest of the night, falling close to vertical at first but becoming increasingly horizontal later. Winds will start off from a S’ly direction increasing from fresh force 5 to strong force 6-7 by midnight, then veering WSW’ly in the second half of the night and increasing to a solid gale force 8. That’s with reference to the mean wind. If we focus on the speed of the gusts then they will typically be around 55-60mph as we approach dawn on Friday. So the take-home message is secure your moorings, take your surfboards off the car roof and don’t leave loose items lying around the garden.
Surf and the Water
Cleanish 6 foot surf along the west coast through most of the day, becoming really clean towards dusk. A lovely mild day for a sea swim, especially if you head east in the afternoon, picking on somewhere like Fermain or Havelet. Overnight the sea state will become high, which is about as big as it ever tends to get in the Channel, so needless to say that Ferry crossings will be affected. Tiny tides though (thank goodness), with highs of just 6.1m at lunchtime and then 6.4m in the middle of the night.
Friday
Weather
The vicious gales will persist well into the morning, still blowing from a WSW’ly direction, with gusts in excess of 50mph. There will undoubtedly be tree damage, and showers will keep coming and going, so we obviously have a combination of difficult driving conditions and even worse weather for walking and cycling. Therefore, it would be a great idea to allow extra time for essential journeys to school or to work, or to simply stay at home if you don’t need to be anywhere. Come the afternoon, the weather should become dry and even quite bright or sunny, whilst the winds gradually simmer down to a strong force 6 W’ly, which is pretty much how they will stay for the rest of the night). Temperatures will be of little interest, but at least it won’t be too cold… holding steady around 11°C through the entire 24 hours.
Surf and the Water
Horrendously rough seas along all coasts except the east, Even the east will have some residual turbulence and the offshore wind will be too strong in almost all locations for it to be sensible to go swimming. The only spot that springs to mind for a dip is probably Fermain in the mid-late afternoon, when the tide is peaking around 6.3m.
The Weekend
Weather
Saturday will be a day of sunny spells, punctuated by brief showers. The air getting slightly cooler, as winds veer from a strong force 6 W’ly to a fresh force 5 NW’ly. Sunday, albeit with that relatively cool air lingering over the islands, is looking like the most pleasant day by far, as we enjoy totally dry weather with increasing amounts of sunshine and the wind relaxing to a force 3-4 N’ly. The nicest places to hang out this weekend will generally be east coast on Saturday and south coast on Sunday. Max temps about 11°C on both days.
Surf and the Water
The west-coast surf will still be horribly messy on Saturday, but it will be a great day for windsurfing and kite-surfing. Sunday’s surf, although rapidly shrinking from about 8 feet to 4 feet, will be quite a bit cleaner as the day progresses, and you might even find some south-coast novelty nuggets if you take a look during the morning. The tides will be low in the late mornings and high around dinner time (6.8m and 7.4m respectively).
Next Week
Weather
A lovely weak of settled weather, as high pressure will either be centred over the Channel or very close by. Winds will always be very light, so it should always feel comfortable and spring-like#. However the small movements of the high pressure system will mean that the wind direction changes frequently, throwing a lot of uncertainty on how cloudy/sunny the skies will be and therefore how high the temperatures will climb in the daytime and fall in the night time. It’s not out of the question that we could get a ground frost on the stillest and clearest nights, but daytime temperatures should always make it back up to double figures, and possibly up to the low teens on some occasions.
Surf and the Water
The wind direction is uncertain, but it looks as though it should be offshore for the west coast for much of the time. Furthermore, whenever the winds are onshore then they will be too light to really make a mess of the surf. Wave heights will be around 1-2 feet on the smallest days and around 4-5 feet on the biggest. Biggish tides, with highs around breakfast time and in the evenings… roughly 8m high at the start of the week, picking up to about 9m by the end of the week.
The next forecast update will be on Saturday…
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