Thursday
Weather
Despite pure sunshine all day long (UV 5 so sun-cream would be wise), we will have a chilly ENE’ly airflow (force 4-5) so the temperature will only rise to a max of 12-13°C. Overnight, the wind will fall relatively light though (force 3) so that will mean that night time temperatures are on the low side too (6-7°C for the minimum).
Surf and the Water
1-2 foot surf on the west coast, with the same brisk cross-offshore wind that we’ve had for the past few days. Certainly, if it’s going to be surfable at all, then the dawn session will be the one to pounce upon because the swell will be dropping as the day progresses, meaning that there’s a high chance of total flatness by evening time. Tides will be high around 7:30am and 8pm (9.6m). Low water will be around 2pm.
Friday
Weather
By Friday morning, the skies will have turned a bit cloudier and there might even have been a shower or two before dawn. Through the rest of the day, the ENE’ly wind will be lighter than on Thursday, but with cloudier skies (still a little bit of sneaky sunshine at times) the temperature will probably be a degree lower (only peaking at 11-12°C). There is the possibility of a shower or two, mainly around lunchtime, but the greater likelihood is that we will stay dry, as the showers tend to focus on Normandy.
Surf and the Water
Flat surf but much improved swimming and paddle-boarding conditions, thanks to the big reduction in the NE’ly wind. The smoothest water of all will be along the south coast and in the northern corners of the west coast bays, especially when the tide is high. The times of high water will be 8:15am and 8:30pm (9.6m again). Low water will be around 2:40pm.
The Weekend
Weather
Saturday looks cloudy and dull all day I’m afraid… dry in the morning but then with occasional rain in the afternoon. Sunday will be much sunnier with only the slim chance of a shower. Therefore, it would be fair to say that Sunday will be the better weather day of the weekend. However, in contrast to that, Saturday will be the better day for wind, with just a light force 2 SE’ly in the morning and then a light force 3 NW’ly in the afternoon. Sunday’s winds will be rather brisk… force 4-5 WSW’ly. Therefore, after weighing up all the push-factors and pull-factors, we will probably achieve the same top temperature of about 13°C on both days.
Surf and the Water
High tides will be around 9am, shrinking from 9.5m on Saturday to 9.1m on Sunday. Low tides will be in the mid-afternoons. Light winds will make Saturday great for swimming and paddle-boarding all around the island. Slightly stronger winds will mean that you want to seek shelter on Sunday, and the best place to do that will be along the east coast. As for the surf conditions, well Saturday is looking just as flat as Friday, and then Sunday should offer some lumpy bumpy 3-4 foot fun.
Next Week
Weather
The current expectation is for Monday and Tuesday to both be very wet, with some prolonged rain and drizzle. The latter part of the week will then be much drier and brighter by the looks of things, but that is some way off so confidence is obviously very low for that part of the forecast. Winds look quite brisk through Monday (S’ly) and Tuesday (E’ly), then through the rest of the week we will probably lock into a fairly strong SE’ly. That wind direction is generally good for temperatures, so we should hopefully see temperatures rise to the mid-teens by the end of the week, or maybe even the high teens if we get lucky with the sunshine.
Surf and the Water
The surf should be clean for the vast majority of the time, varying in size from about 2 feet at the smallest to 4 or maybe 5 feet at the biggest. Winds will generally be offshore along the west coast, so the best shelter for swimming will be on that side of the island as well, especially around the times of high water (late morning in the first half of the week, lunchtime in the second half).
The next forecast update will be on Friday evening…
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